RUGBY:Uneasy sits the mantle of favouritism, or so the theory goes. Most likely, it applies to Irish supporters more than the team. It is simply unfamiliar, rarefied terrain, and after the dizzy heights of autumn came a wintry wobble on the eve of the Six Nations.
Springtime at last for Ireland? Summer and autumn form suggested it.
Wales and France are enigmas wrapped in riddles, England are desperately seeking Jonny and salvation, Scotland have the old braveheart spirit, and the Italian pack could conceivably do a number on anybody on any given day. Nonetheless, Ireland are the most proven and known quantity, the most settled, together and primed team of the lot. As the tournament's kick-off looms in Rome today, it's enough to make you squeamish, never mind giddy.
Sod the World Cup for seven weeks. The RBS Six Nations has rediscovered much of its old unpredictability to go with a variety the repetitive Tri-Nations cannot equal.
Tomorrow in Cardiff is merely the opener but it already looms as a moment of truth for an Irish team perhaps on the threshold of greatness and even immortality.
Nothing grounded Irish optimism quite like the Anglo dismembering of the Munster and Leinster set-pieces a fortnight ago. The suspicion lurked then that all others might seek to borrow from the Leicester template, go after the Munster/Ireland scrum, contest the middle and tail of the lineout, nullify Peter Stringer's service and by extension put Ronan O'Gara on the back foot while attacking that outhalf channel.
Gareth Jenkins's selection of Gethin Jenkins and Chris Horsman as his props spoke volumes; the Welsh coach didn't need to boldly and brazenly say as much. Wales are clearly going to attack the Irish scrum and lineout. This could get interesting.
That double whammy by Leicester and Gloucester was a potentially timely reminder to the Irish that for all Leinster's bravura and Munster's attempts to broaden their game, the higher the stakes the more important the foundations.
Bottom line: this Irish pack simply has to deliver at set-piece time. The new scrummaging laws were designed to supposedly depower the initial hit and by extension the more aggressive scrums. But the evidence of Thomond Park suggested otherwise, that smaller, powerful props such as Julian White and Horsman, or Martin Castrogiovanni (who with Andreo Lo Cicero only makes the Italian bench) can better use their technique to twist their opponents.
The Irish scrum has never been a potent attacking weapon, but they'll have worked assiduously on the training ground over the last two weeks and if they maintain concentration and focus and achieve security on their own put-in, it will probably be enough.
The alternative scenario, of the Irish back row back-pedalling and that arch spoiler Dwayne Peel snapping at Stringer or taking quick taps off scrum penalties with the packs engaged doesn't bear thinking about. Wales will have their tails up and Ireland will be on the back foot for uncomfortable chunks of the game.
Ditto the lineouts, nowadays king supplier of ball, ascendancy and scores (28 of last season's 61 tries emanated from lineouts). And so much of Ireland's game under Eddie O'Sullivan depends on quick ball moved on to O'Gara, the man with the controls, or the Gordon D'Arcy-Brian O'Driscoll attacking midfield axis. Starved of this supply, Ireland will be feeding off morsels.
Whatever else they do, the Irish pack have to get their basics right. If they do, it's not a done deal, but with the accuracy and effectiveness at the breakdown of the summer in New Zealand and in the autumn, they have the dynamism to go on and win.
However well balanced the Alix Popham, Martyn Williams and Ryan Jones back row, you still wouldn't swap any of them for Denis Leamy, while David Wallace and Simon Easterby bring their own ball-carrying and all-round savvy to the equation.
Mightily effective though Peel and Stephen Jones are, the telepathic Stringer-O'Gara combination is just as effective at running a game given the pack do their stuff. And though James Hook is gifted, a combination of injuries, suspension and loss of form has given the Welsh back line a comparatively callow and unproven look.
Munster slipped back into old drifting habits in defence against Leicester, and Ireland cannot be passive with or without the ball, for they'll have to attack to win, but they have the cutting edge across their threequarter line to counter either a blitz or drift defence from the slightly makeshift Welsh.
You'd like more ball-carrying dynamism through the team, and the offloading game to be spread among more than the naturally gifted few, namely O'Driscoll, D'Arcy and Leamy, but if push comes to shove the likes of Jerry Flannery, Neil Best and Geordan Murphy can offer ballast from the bench.
Wales, of course, have home advantage, and the Millennium Stadium has generally been a classic example of how a new, bigger, more grandiose and more modern ground can indeed become a true home.
The noise will be tumultuous at the outset and will rise if Wales get away to a flier, while a tight finish could also inspire the Red Dragonhood; think of the wooden spoonists of four years ago nearly derailing Ireland's Slam ambitions in the penultimate round or, for that matter, the carnival atmosphere of two years ago.
Nonetheless, if Ireland can dampen the crowd's enthusiasm with an accurate start that could go a long way toward making the endgame anti-climactic from a Welsh perspective. Ireland have a mental edge from recent meetings, having won six of the last seven clashes, and if the game starts to get away from either side Wales are more likely to suffer self-doubt.
This is the ground where Munster reached their holy grail, and with that memory in mind, it can be where Ireland begin their road to glory.
Head-to-head: Played 111. Wales 61 wins, 6 draws, Ireland 44 wins.
Highest scores: Wales 34-9 in 1976. Ireland 54-10 in 2002.
Biggest wins: Wales 29-0 in 1907. Ireland 54-10 in 2002.
Last five meetings: (2006) Ireland 31 Wales 5; (2005) Wales 32 Ireland 20; (2004) Ireland 36 Wales 15; Ireland 35 Wales 12; (2003) Wales 24 Ireland 25.
Betting (Paddy Power): 7/5 Wales, 22/1 Draw, 4/7 Ireland. Handicap odds (= Wales + 4pts) 10/11 Wales, 22/1 Draw, 10/11 Ireland.
Forecast: Ireland to win.
