The forecast is relatively good – summertime in Ireland being entirely relative – the top two teams in the League are squaring off for the trophy, and tickets have been split evenly for what should be a colourful and raucous sell-out come the Saturday tea-time kick-off. Well timed and well primed, as seasonal finales go, this one could hardly be set up any better.
That it also happens to be a reprise of last season’s Heineken Cup final underlines its quality, and as it’s also a repeat of the semi-final here two seasons ago, the Leinster-Ulster rivalry is rapidly assuming a lustre not far off the Leinster-Munster rivalry . This reflects well on Ulster’s progress as it does on Leinster’s enduring standards – this being the latter’s fourth League final in a row and their eighth final of some description in the last five seasons.
Having stormed the Thomond Park citadel in last season’s Heineken Cup, Ulster travel down for their ‘home’ final buoyed by a league double over Leinster this season. Last March’s win at this venue constituted their first win over Leinster in Dublin since August 1999, and Leinster’s only defeat in their last 17 outings since losing at Ravenhill before Christmas.
Full strength
True, Brian O'Driscoll, Jonny Sexton and Leo Cullen were not playing when Ulster won here at the end of March, but then neither were Tommy Bowe and John Afoa. Ulster also arrive at full-strength, with Afoa restored, and with a 15-day run-in.
Ulster came back to 24-14 inside the last quarter of last season's Heineken Cup final at Twickenham before a couple of late tries "exaggerated the scoreline," admitted Joe Schmidt yesterday. "The actual game was a lot closer than that."
Schmidt highlighted Ulster's strong scrum; Johann Muller, "a smart lineout operator" and "the glue that keeps them all together"; the ability of Nick Williams, Chris Henry and Rory Best to slow down or turn over ball; Ruan Pienaar's kicking game; the "young guns" Paddy Jackson and Stuart Olding, whose speed, balance and footwork have made him "one of the finds of the season" and the battle of the back threes.
This will be a maximum, 99th and last competitive game under Schmidt. Amongst the eight players departing are two icons, for this will be Isa Nacewa’s 126th and last game for Leinster, and Jonny Sexton’s 110th and last game, for the next couple of years anyway.
Leinster will desperately want to send them off into the sunset. Equal to all of that, the Ulster players won’t lack for motivation and will desperately want to win the trophy not just for themselves, but for the memory of the late Nevin Spence.
Yet it doesn't always work out like that – the last three finals also having been losing farewells to Michael Cheika and a number of players. Indeed, this desire can be emotionally distracting.
Leo Cullen spoke of managing the occasion. “There will be a lot of emotion on Saturday for both sides for different reasons. It’s important to keep clear heads. We have to focus on the job. The team comes first. You have all these little distractions going on but we need to play rugby on the day.”
Shuffling his pack
By dint of shuffling his pack last week against Stade Francais, so Schmidt has recalled six refreshed players, namely Brian O'Driscoll, Cian Healy, Richardt Strauss, Leo Cullen, Kevin McLaughlin and Shane Jennings, although not surprisingly Seán O'Brien didn't make it.
The retention of Devin Toner over Quinn Roux highlights Leinster's respect for the well-oiled Ulster lineout. But most likely the game will be won in the contact zone, and which team is the most accurate in their breakdown work, with McLaughlin's week-off after his ferocious workload against Glasgow is a potential godsend.
And then, whenever in doubt lately, you just factor in Sexton. That’s how good he’s been since returning to action. He hasn’t been on a losing side for nine games dating back to the Clermont matches in December, and his only other defeat in 20 games for province or country this season was against South Africa. Leinster may well need to be patient, but if not emotionally distracted himself, then Sexton is liable to give his team every chance of winning that elusive first league final.
