Stephen Kenny dreams of guiding the Republic of Ireland to the European Championships in 2024 but reality and rotten luck have intervened with a group of death, containing three former champions in France, the Netherlands and Greece.
Germany 2024 feels a long way off right now. Nonetheless, the eight-match campaign looks set to be rocket-launched by France coming to Dublin on March 27th before the second game in Athens on June 16th.
A trip to Paris and Holland at home makes the three-day September window crucial and, in all likelihood, Ireland will need a result in Amsterdam on November 18th next year to qualify automatically as Group B winners or runners-up. The fixtures, announced earlier on Sunday, have yet to be confirmed after Uefa said late on Sunday night that “they had noticed an issue with the calendar and we ask you to DISREGARD the fixture list that was sent out. A new version will be issued as soon as possible.”
Kenny could not have picked a tougher qualification route for what promises to be a flawlessly presented Euros, with a dollop of irony tossed into the fires as Gibraltar make up the numbers.
“Nobody wanted France as a second seed, I think that is fair to say, and Greece are a good team,” said Kenny, following Sunday’s draw in Frankfurt. “But we have shown a capacity to get good results against Portugal, Serbia, Scotland and Belgium this year. You can see the improvement in the team and the capacity to score goals.”
Kenny, understandably, glossed over the three goals conceded against Armenia in 2022.
“We just need to pick off big results. We will have to do something extraordinary to finish in the top two but that is our intention.”
He beat the next question to the punch by emphasising the need for consistency of performance in 2023, if Ireland are to stand “toe-to-toe” with the fourth- and eighth-ranked sides in the world.
An audible groan filled the Festhalle Dome when Ireland suffered the worst-case scenario. Even Uefa deputy general secretary Giorgio Marchetti and Jürgen Klinsmann offered instant sympathy to the FAI delegation, led by chief executive Jonathan Hill, as 10 groups were decided for 20 qualifiers to join hosts Germany at the finals, beginning in Munich on June 14th, 2024, and ending at Berlin’s Olympic Stadium on July 14th.
There is a lifeline. Ireland can fail spectacularly next year and still fill one of the three remaining slots at the 24-team tournament. The back door into the Euros is based on Nations League rankings, and despite poor results against Armenia and Ukraine, a ranking of 26 should drop Kenny’s squad into the 12-team playoffs in March 2024.
“We are looking forward to big games in Dublin next year,” the manager continued. “We have shown we can get results at the Aviva Stadium. It is a big challenge, there is no doubt about that.”
Irish fans will embrace Group B adventures to Athens, Amsterdam, Paris and the tip of the Iberian peninsula.
And there’s always the hope of the others devouring each other.
“Greece are strong as well so teams will take points off each other. We just need to get ourselves ready. They won their [Nations League] group and have had some good recent results, they beat Northern Ireland twice.
“I don’t mind getting a strong fourth seed because teams will take points off each other.
“I’m sure supporters first and foremost they want to qualify. Going to these venues is a great experience in their lives but like everyone else, we all want to qualify and we all have the same ambition.”
The sight of German manager Hansi Flick in the mixed zone hinted at Uefa dropping the hosts into Ireland’s qualifier windows, to play competitive friendlies, much like Fifa did with Qatar last year.
But Virgil van Dijk and Kylian Mbappé are enough of a box office draw to allow Kenny to suggest middle-tier opposition for two friendly matches in what is an already an enormously challenging 12 months.
Elsewhere, England and Italy will renew acquaintances in Group C, having played each other three times in the last 16 months, along with Ukraine, the other third seeds to be cursed by an unforgiving draw.
The rest of Pot 3 can consider themselves blessed. Norway got Spain and Scotland. Albania will cut into Poland and the Czech Republic. Sweden might fancy their chances against Belgium and Austria. And on down the list of winnable games, but Ireland must grapple with the Netherlands, France and Greece.
“It’s our big dream to get to the Euros,” said Kenny. “The draw hasn’t been kind to us but that’s life, you got to take what is thrown at you.”
Ireland’s Euro 2024 schedule
(all qualifiers take place in 2023, fixtures to be confirmed)
March 27th: v France (h)
June 16th: v Greece (a)
June 19th: v Gibraltar (h)
September 7th: v France (a)
September 10th: v Netherlands (h)
October 13th: v Greece (h)
October 16th: v Gibraltar (a)
November 18th: v Netherlands (a)
