When all is said and done, the joint UK and Ireland bid to host the 2028 European Championships appears likely to be a relatively straightforward tap-in. With the decision set to be made in September 2023, the only other bid left in the race is the Turkish one and they’re already hedging their bets by also bidding for the 2032 tournament. Russia also applied with a day left to the deadline back in March but it was rightly dismissed as little more than mischief-making just over a month into their invasion of Ukraine and they were subsequently kicked out of the process.
Turkey can’t admit out loud that their best chance of hosting a tournament is the 2032 one but that is generally accepted to be the case. They have undergone a huge programme of stadium rebuilding in the past 18 months, giving them a headstart over Italy’s rival bid. They joined the race for 2028 when Russia threw their hat into the ring, figuring that they may as well be in it as not.
But eight months down the line, it looks unlikely that they will be able to compete with the UK and Ireland bid. In their public statements during the 2028 race, the best they have been able to offer is the chance for fans to visit a country they wouldn’t normally.
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“If you are a football fan it’s highly likely you have visited London at some point in your life,” Mehmet Buyukeksi, head of the Turkish FA, told The Times of London back in August. “But probably not Turkey or Istanbul – and we would like to see things the other way around. Maybe Uefa should favour nations who have not hosted the Euros.”
In different times, that appeal to the happy wanderers of European football fandom might carry some weight. Not this time around. Even before the world economy started to get the collywobbles through the spring and summer, Uefa had already made it clear that the next two stagings of the European Championships were first and foremost about making bank for the association after the losses of the pandemic.
“We can deliver a really strong commercial return for Uefa,” said Mark Bullingham, head of the English FA. “We feel that puts us in a strong position. Uefa are being very transparent with all 55 countries that they want to use the 2024 [in Germany] and 2028 men’s Euros to rebuild their coffers and rebuild their reserves.”
It was a point that David Gill, the former Manchester United chief executive and these days the Uefa treasurer, doubled down on at the Uefa conference in Vienna back in May. Cash reserves needed to be bolstered and the next two stagings of the Euros are the obvious revenue streams to milk for all they’re worth.
Ultimately, this is what the host countries are to Uefa – the winning bid will have many aspects to it but none matter more than an ability to generate millions for the parent association. Much like Fifa and the IOC, Uefa have, over the years, pulled off the neat trick of making it look as though awarding tournaments is an act of largesse by them when actually it’s largely the other way around.
They make governments underwrite bids. It’s why bidding countries have to amend their tax laws so that footballers arriving to play games don’t have to donate any of their earnings to the local exchequer. It’s the reason we will have to cover so many of the tournament costs, from security to marketing and beyond.
The bid was approved by cabinet on Tuesday and nobody was going to miss the open goal. But we should be careful from here on out about what we swallow when politicians and Uefa suits tell us when they talk about it. Dreamy predictions of the economic benefits of these almost always outweigh the reality.
Back in 2009, the Dublin Chamber of Commerce breathlessly welcomed the announcement that the 2011 Europa League final would be coming to Dublin as being worth “anything up to €100 million to the Irish economy”. By the time the game came around between Portuguese sides Braga and Porto, that figure was revised down to closer to €20m.
Assuming the bid wins, Dublin will host seven games in the 2028 Euros. The notion that those seven games will bring €250m to the local economy – to use one of the figures that is being bandied around – feels highly unlikely. Particularly so, when Dublin’s status as a two-stadium host city could well guarantee Ireland automatic qualification. It would mean three of those games would feature Ireland, which obviously lessens the amount of external income landing on these shores.
Ultimately, chances are Ireland will co-host the Euros six years from now. Whatever benefits accrue, always remember that the ultimate winners will be Uefa. We’re putting every effort into doing them the favour, not the other way around.
