Soccer

2026 World Cup draw: Ireland’s path looks complicated, good luck would be welcome

One thing is clear even before Friday’s draw: Heimir Hallgrímsson’s team need to improve to reach the tournament

Recent draws have not been kind to the Republic of Ireland, who would welcome a bit of luck in Friday's draw for the 2026 World Cup qualifying groups. Photograph Shaun Botterill/Getty Images
Recent draws have not been kind to the Republic of Ireland, who would welcome a bit of luck in Friday's draw for the 2026 World Cup qualifying groups. Photograph Shaun Botterill/Getty Images
David Gorman's picture
David Gorman
Thu Dec 12 2024 - 16:16

The Republic of Ireland go into Friday’s 2026 World Cup draw in Zurich (11am) more in hope than expectation of making the finals in the United States, Canada and Mexico.

The extent of that hope will be largely determined by the luck of the draw. The last time Ireland qualified for the World Cup, in 2002, they did so the hard way in a group, qualifying from a group that featured Portugal and the Netherlands, preventing Louis van Gaal’s Dutch team from making the finals on the back of reaching the Euro 2000 semi-finals. But that took some virtuoso displays from Roy Keane, whose performances against Netherlands were so good that Van Gaal voted him for Fifa World Player of the Year. These days Ireland have no player of that quality.

The recent qualifying draws have not been kind. For Euro 2024, the unfortunate placing of France in Pot 2 meant Ireland got the World Cup finalists and Netherlands in their group with the top two qualifying, an impossible task. The last World Cup qualifying saw a tricky group with Portugal and Serbia, while in the Nations League England and Greece were arguably the most formidable two teams they could meet.

Heimir Hallgrímsson’s team could meet England and Greece again in what would be a demoralising group after losing to those teams by a combined 11-0 over four matches in the Nations League. Pot 1 features all the heavyweights, such as Germany and Euro 2024 champions Spain, but Austria and Denmark might give Ireland faint hope of a result. In Pot 2, Wales, Czech Republic and Slovakia may be the ones to look out for, and Ireland beat Hungary 2-1 in a friendly in June, their only win over a pot 2 or above nation since they beat Wales in 2017.

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While some draws would be better than others, Ireland desperately need to improve their results. Take out the wins against the part-time Gibraltar team and Ireland have lost 12 of their last 17 games, winning only three of them. Optimists could point out that two of those wins have come in their last four games, beating Finland home and away, and that is something to work on.

Ireland can be drawn into a four- or a five-team group for the 48-team tournament, which has 16 European places. Due to involvement in the Nations League promotion/relegation play-off, the chance of being in a group of four is increased, as a group of five can only hold one Nations League finals participant or one Nations League relegation play-off participant.

The groups of five teams will begin in March 2025, while groups of four teams will begin in September 2025. For those groups offor four, the entire group stage is condensed from September 4th to November 18th. For the 2002 World Cup, the qualifying campaign was spread out over a year, this time it could be decided in three months. It puts an impetus on hitting form at the right time.

Ireland’s best players are heading towards their peak years. Nathan Collins is 23 years old and thriving at Brentford in the top 10 of the Premier League, while Caoimhín Kelleher (26) has been in superb form in Alisson’s absence at Liverpool. Troy Parrott (22) recently scored against Ajax for AZ Alkmaar, and although Evan Ferguson (20) is struggling for game time at Brighton, his performances in the Nations League showed his promise. The expectation is these players will continue to improve in the run-up to crunch time next year, and winger Chiedozie Ogbene (27) should have recovered from his long-term Achilles injury by then.

The condensed schedule means more luck comes into it. If Collins or Ferguson get injured in the first few weeks of the 2025/26 Premier League season, they could miss the entire qualification. But, the same is true of key players of rival teams, particularly from Pot 2. A rotational England team smashing Ireland 5-0 in the Nations League shows the top nations have enough strength in depth to take luck out of the equation.

The millennial generation is the last one to remember seeing the Ireland men’s team in a World Cup, for Gen Z it is a festival of football that is watched on TV with Ireland never there. The tough task for Hallgrímsson to bring the World Cup to a lost generation begins in earnest at Friday lunchtime.

How will the draw work?

Fifty-four teams have been divided into five pots (seeded based on a mix of Nations League results and Fifa rankings) and will be drawn to make six groups of four an, six groups of five.

When will the matches be played?

Teams drawn in groups of five will begin qualifying in March and teams drawn in groups of four start their campaigns in September. All groups conclude in November 2025.

How do teams qualify?

Direct qualification for the tournament will go to the 12 group winners. The 12 group runners-up and the four highest-ranked ranked group winners from the 2024/25 Nations League that didn’t win or come second in their European qualifiers group go to the playoffs, from which four teams will qualify for the World Cup.

When will the playoffs take place?

The eight single-leg playoff semi-finals are in the diary for March 26th, 2026, followed by the four single-leg finals on March 31st.

Heimir Hallgrímsson's Ireland team will be among the third seeds in the draw. Photograph: Ryan Byrne/Inpho
Heimir Hallgrímsson's Ireland team will be among the third seeds in the draw. Photograph: Ryan Byrne/Inpho
World Cup qualifying draw pots

Pot 1

  • France
  • Spain
  • England
  • Portugal
  • Netherlands
  • Belgium
  • Italy
  • Germany
  • Croatia
  • Switzerland
  • Denmark
  • Austria

Pot 2

  • Ukraine
  • Sweden
  • Türkiye
  • Wales
  • Hungary
  • Serbia
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Greece
  • Slovakia
  • Czechia
  • Norway

Pot 3

  • Scotland
  • Slovenia
  • Republic of Ireland
  • Albania
  • North Macedonia
  • Georgia
  • Finland
  • Iceland
  • Northern Ireland
  • Montenegro
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Israel

Pot 4

  • Bulgaria
  • Luxembourg
  • Belarus
  • Kosovo
  • Armenia
  • Kazakhstan
  • Azerbaijan
  • Estonia
  • Cyprus
  • Faroe Islands
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania

Pot 5

  • Moldova
  • Malta
  • Andorra
  • Gibraltar
  • Liechtenstein
  • San Marino

Teams will play the others in their group twice over a home and an away leg.