Europa League, third qualifying round, second-leg: Shelbourne v Rijeka, Tolka Park, 7.45pm – Steaming LOITV (Shelbourne lead 2-1 after first-leg)
Potentially a red-letter night for Shelbourne. If Joey O’Brien’s team avoid defeat to Rijeka, progress to the group stage of European football is guaranteed for the first time in the club’s 130-year history.
If they are beaten, all is not lost.
Should Shelbourne maintain their 2-1 lead over the Croatian champions from last Wednesday’s first-leg, when John Martin replaced the injured Seán Boyd to head a fantastic winner, they go into a Europa League playoff against PAOK (Greece) or Wolfsberger (Austria).
[ Seán Boyd to miss Shelbourne’s Europa League tie against RijekaOpens in new window ]
The Greeks travel to Wolfsberg for the second-leg on Thursday with the fixture locked at 0-0.
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Regardless of the next opponent, by getting past Rijeka Shels will have secured European group stage football and at least six matches deep into December as defeat in a Europa playoff sees them rerouted to the Uefa Conference League.
Progress to the Europa League would earn the League of Ireland champions at least €4.31 million in prize money. That figure drops to €3.17 million for reaching the Conference League.
If, however, Rijeka reverse last week’s surprise defeat at home, and Tony Fruk’s return from suspension suggests that they will, Shels will drop to a Conference League playoff against either Linfield or Vikingur (Faroe Islands), to be played on August 21st and 28th.
Having lost the first-leg 2-1 in Tórshavn, Linfield have plenty to do at Windsor Park if they are to reprise the Champions League first qualifying round loss to Shelbourne in July.
The third-tier Conference League has only existed for five seasons but it is already benefiting Irish football. Last season, Shamrock Rovers earned €6.4 million for finishing 10th of 36 clubs in the league phase.
Rovers have a good chance of revisiting those heights if they can reverse a 1-0 deficit when Kosovo’s Ballkani come to Tallaght on Thursday.
St Patrick’s Athletic are almost certainly done with European competition this year after Turkish giants Besiktas handed them a 4-1 defeat last week with a second-leg in Istanbul on Thursday to follow.
St Pat’s learned a painful lesson by trying to play their usual game, which led to a Tammy Abraham hat-trick before half-time, but O’Brien refuses to park the bus.
“I didn’t play that way as a player, I’m not going to play that way as a manager.”
Maybe so, but if Shels are ahead entering the last 20 minutes, with three million quid on the line, do not be surprised to see 11 players behind the ball.
The Drumcondra squad has been constructed and insulated to survive a long winter, signing former Ireland under-21 striker Mipo Odubeko, Scottish enforcer Kerr McInroy, French defender Milan Mbeng, Sean Moore from West Ham and Dutch goalkeeper Wessel Speel.
“Overall, before a ball is kicked, look at where they are at, and where we are at, they are favourites,” said O’Brien. “But they are coming to our place. We would back ourselves to beat anyone here.”
Linfield, Qarabag and now Rijeka have encountered this hardy bunch. McInroy takes no prisoners in midfield and centre-half Paddy Barrett is made of concrete. Equally, they can spring attacks off the slick, technical ability of Harry Wood and Ali Coote.
Rijeka are also forewarned about Shels coach Dave McAllister’s tricky short-corner routines. Sam Bone profited from McInroy’s clever delivery to score the equaliser in Croatia.
RTÉ and Virgin Media were approached to broadcast the match but declined, citing cost and short notice, so the LOITV revenue for a one-off €9.99 payment will go directly to Shelbourne.
The chance of an upset is helped immeasurably by all 3,650 fans expected inside Tolka being true-reds as Rijeka’s supporters are currently banned from away venues.
Uefa rules around health and safety has reduced the capacity from the 5,474 that crammed into the old ground for Saturday’s raucous 2-2 draw with Bohemians.
“Bit sore and that after a good game, a proper Dublin derby with both teams having a cut off each other and some flying tackles,” added O’Brien of the match included 10 yellow cards. “Great to get the result looking back on it, to keep the momentum going, which I thought we deserved. All roads lead to tomorrow night.”
