As a general rule, it is almost always best to sleep on things before making important decisions or reacting to provocations. So why, at close to midnight on Tuesday, did Newcastle rush out a seemingly knee-jerk response to Alexander Isak’s incendiary Instagram post claiming that, amid broken promises, his relationship with the club was over?
In a statement reflecting an appreciably tougher tone than at any time during this summer saga, Newcastle insisted no promises had been broken and that their intention is to keep Isak. The message was that the Sweden striker’s attempt to force a move to Liverpool had failed and he would need to end his one-man strike before being welcomed back to first-team training. The only problem is that while you can lead a horse to water it sometimes really is impossible to make them drink.
Even if – and right now it looks a pretty big if – Isak stops training alone and agrees to rejoin Newcastle’s first-team fold, how can Eddie Howe ever trust him again? Howe’s high-intensity, hard-pressing approach is extremely demanding and, if Isak is anything less than fully engaged, he will prove detrimental to the team. Yes, Isak is supremely gifted, but the standard in the Premier League and Champions League is so high even he is not capable of drifting through games.
Howe has already acknowledged that Isak’s behaviour in skipping Newcastle’s preseason tour of southeast Asia disrupted dressingroom morale. Does he really want a player, however talented, polluting behind-the-scenes atmosphere with his grievances? Given Newcastle fans have taken to chanting about “one greedy bastard”, maintaining his personal security in the face of intense supporter anger may not be exactly straightforward, either.
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Moreover, Isak knows that with every poor performance the price tag around his neck will drop. Given that Liverpool have shown no indication of pursuing alternative strikers, they could end up playing a slightly longer game and waiting until Newcastle are desperate to offload their No 14 in January. In reality it will be a major surprise if this saga endures that long. Indeed a careful reading of Newcastle’s statement conveys a hint that maybe it is part of a haggling manoeuvre as the club’s Saudi Arabian owners aim to extract the maximum possible price from their Anfield counterparts. As the former Newcastle and Liverpool manager Rafael Benítez used to say: “All football is a lie.”
“We have been clear that the conditions for a sale this summer have not transpired,” read Newcastle’s statement on Tuesday night. “We do not foresee these conditions being met”. The conditions in question refer to the need for Newcastle to sign two strikers to not merely replace Isak but also Callum Wilson, who is now at West Ham. There is a theory that Isak’s withering social media-outburst reflected his frustration at the club’s unwillingness to pay Brentford’s £50 million-£60 million (€58 million-€69 million) asking fee for Yoane Wissa to fill at least one of those slots. In an uncanny parallel, Wissa has also absented himself from first-team involvement at his club as he attempts to seal a longed-for move to St James’ Park.
The ostensibly weird thing about the proposed Wissa deal is that the Saudis want £150 million (€173 million) for Isak but have offered Brentford less than a third of that, bidding £35 million (€40 million) for the DR Congo forward. Statistics can be deceptive but in this case they seem pretty compelling. Last season Wissa scored 19 goals in 35 Premier League appearances. Significantly, none were penalties. Isak, meanwhile, scored 23 times in 34 league appearances for a much stronger side. Four of his goals were also penalties.
There is a reasonable case for claiming that Isak’s all-round game is superior to Wissa’s, but Brentford-watchers demur, making the point that Wissa is also a pretty useful attacking threat from wide on the left. The big difference is that Wissa is three years older than Isak. Perhaps more importantly, while three years remain on Isak’s contract with Newcastle, there is only one year left on Wissa’s with Brentford.
If Newcastle lifted their offer for Wissa slightly past £40 million (€46 million), Brentford would surely do a deal. Their Saudi owners also know that keeping Isak for another year could prove rather pointless given that he is clearly not committed to Howe’s cause and next summer’s price for a then 26-year-old with two years left on his contract is going to be nowhere near £150 million.
Despite appearances to the contrary, the prospect of such a dwindling profit margin means it is still eminently possible to envisage Isak waking up as a Liverpool player on September 2nd. Similarly, Jørgen Strand Larsen or Gonçalo Romas could join Wissa on Tyneside by the time the transfer window has shut. And should that all transpire, what’s for sure is that Newcastle’s dressingroom would be an infinitely healthier, happier place. – Guardian
