Despite an underwhelming start, with only one point from their three games against 2026 World Cup Group F opponents Portugal, Hungary and Armenia so far, all hope is not lost for the Republic of Ireland in trying to qualify for the tournament in North America next summer.
It all becomes mostly redundant if Ireland fail to beat Armenia in Dublin tomorrow night, but with Ireland 2-5 to do so with the bookies, it is not beyond reason to have hope that they will get the win they need, despite their struggles.
The way the fixtures have fallen have been kind to the optimistic Ireland supporter, given that the final match is against a side perceived to be our main rivals, Hungary. So even being within three points of Hungary heading into that final match gives Ireland a shot at the playoffs, albeit a difficult one. From this point onwards, it is all about getting to a place where that final game is not a dead rubber for Heimir Hallgrímsson.
This is where the manager’s quote of “I would take us playing a sh**ty game and winning 1-0” against Armenia could backfire, as Ireland are on -2 goal difference, compared to +1 for Hungary, with goal difference being the main tiebreaker, and goals scored being the second tiebreaker, where Ireland have scored three compared to Hungary’s six. In this case, Ireland beating Armenia 4-3 would be preferable to 1-0, if maybe not as good for the heart.
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Here are some of the possible scenarios left for Ireland:
Ireland go to final game just needing to avoid a big defeat against Hungary
One of the most unlikely scenarios would be Ireland pulling off a shock by beating Portugal in Dublin after beating Armenia, while Hungary lose their two matches. Depending on how many goals were scored, it could leave a scenario with Ireland going to Budapest and a one-goal defeat being enough. In this situation, you would also have to look over your shoulder at Armenia and hope they do not get an unlikely result against Portugal in their final game.
Ireland go to final game just needing a draw against Hungary
If Ireland beat Armenia and Portugal and Hungary draw both their games, or if Ireland beat Armenia, draw with Portugal and Hungary lose both of their games, this scenario could emerge. It could also happen depending on goal difference if the two teams were level on points, but for example if Ireland beat Armenia by four or five tomorrow night, or Hungary are thrashed by Portugal, it would make up the three-goal disadvantage on goal difference.
Ireland go to the final game needing to beat Hungary by any score
This is possibly the most realistic scenario to aim for, which involves Ireland being behind Hungary, but within two points of them, so goal difference wouldn’t come into play.
The most feasible scenarios in that case are:
Ireland beat Armenia, draw with Portugal. Hungary lose to Portugal, beat Armenia.
Ireland beat Armenia, lose to Portugal. Hungary lose to Portugal, draw with Armenia.
Ireland go to the final game needing to beat Hungary by a certain score
If Ireland are within three points of Hungary, then goal difference matters for that final game. Let’s take a reasonably realistic scenario where Ireland beat Armenia 1-0 tomorrow night, and Portugal beat Hungary 2-1. Then Hungary beat Armenia 1-0 in Yerevan, and Ireland lose 2-0 to Portugal. In this case, Ireland would have to beat Hungary by four goals in the final match, rueing how few goals they scored earlier in the group.
Can Ireland qualify if they draw with Armenia?
Yes they can, but it would feel like delaying the inevitable. A result against Portugal in Dublin would be essential at that point.
In the least impressive of all scenarios, if Ireland got 0-0 draws against Armenia and Portugal, then beat Hungary 1-0 in their final game, they could get to the playoffs if Hungary lose to Portugal and draw with Armenia.
Worst case scenarios elsewhere?
We don’t want to see Hungary beat Portugal tomorrow night, which would leave Ireland fairly snookered even with a win against Armenia. Portugal would be highly motivated to qualify automatically in Dublin, and it could get to a point then where Ireland need to beat Portugal to stay in with a chance.
