World Cup qualifier, Group F: Republic of Ireland v Portugal, Aviva Stadium, Thursday, 7.45pm – Live RTÉ 2
The Republic of Ireland’s World Cup qualification campaign has been memorable for the unrealistic promises made by Heimir Hallgrímsson, his questionable team selections and a formation overhaul after defeat to Armenia in Yerevan.
Nothing has gone according to plan.
Ridicule or redemption for both Hallgrímsson and the Irish players, comes next. If, somehow, they can secure four points from two matches in three days against Portugal and Hungary, the recent past will feel like growing pains.
The Cristiano Ronaldo circus could turn into an irrelevant sideshow, for Ireland anyway, if Hungary beat Armenia in Yerevan. That crucial Group F fixture kicks off at 5pm so everyone inside a sold-out Aviva Stadium will know what needs to be done.
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If the Hungarians, led by Liverpool star Dominik Szoboszlai, bank three points in Armenia then Ireland, led by Brentford captain Nathan Collins, will be presented with wildly contrasting tactical choices, although Hallgrímsson has already dismissed the idea of tearing into the Portuguese.
“We don’t know how much is at stake until after the Armenia game against Hungary,” said the Ireland manager. “Our approach is not going to change, whether we need a win or a draw, we can’t go all-in against a team like Portugal, it’s not going to be a basketball match.
“We will take calculated risks if we need to score a goal later on in the game. We have a plan for it and the players must be ready psychologically for this encounter.”
Unfortunately, budgetary constraints within the FAI have denied the players access to a psychologist.
The shape of the group come Sunday will depend on the amount of goals Hungary score in Yerevan, where in September Portugal won 5-0 before Ireland lost 2-1. The smart money is on Collins leading the same ultra-defensive approach as Lisbon last month, where a 91st-minute goal from Rúben Neves spoiled the quest for a famous 0-0.
Hungary have a point to spare and a two-goal advantage over Ireland in the race for a World Cup playoff in March. The goal difference indicates that Ireland will need a win in Budapest even if they take three points off the Portuguese.
If Portugal are leading as the clock ticks down on Thursday night, with Hungary ahead in Armenia and four points clear of Ireland, the atmosphere will drain from the Aviva. This would be a brand new experience for Hallgrímsson but a familiar scene to Irish fans who have shown unrelenting loyalty since the heady days of Euro 2016.
If Ireland fail to qualify for a playoff, with one game to spare, a public conversation will instantly begin around who should be the next Ireland manager as Stephen Bradley, Damien Duff, Robbie Keane and England under-21 manager Lee Carsley will, inevitably, be mentioned and debated.
As recently as last week Hallgrímsson was still saying that Ireland would qualify for the World Cup. Such talk carries no weight now Evan Ferguson, who has scored three of Ireland’s four goals in qualifying, is joined on the absentee list by suspended duo Ryan Manning and Jayson Molumby, while Robbie Brady, Will Smallbone, Jason Knight, Matt Doherty and Sammie Szmodics are injured.
The main concern is left back, where Liam Scales is set to revive his wing back days at Shamrock Rovers before his move to Celtic in 2021.
The other big decision is Ferguson’s replacement, with Adam Idah potentially edging out Troy Parrott mainly because the lone striker will be the first line of defence. The team has been so flat in their second game over three days since September that Parrott’s form for Dutch club AZ Alkmaar – 14 goals in 13 appearances – might be better utilised by starting him in Budapest.
Portugal travel without the suspended Manchester United captain Bruno Fernandes, while the best left back in the world, Paris Saint-Germain’s Nuno Mendes, and Chelsea winger Pedro Neto are injured. Replacing them with João Félix, Nélson Semedo and Rafael Leão barely weakens Roberto Martínez’s hand while the return of João Cancelo strengthens the right flank.
“Portugal haven’t won in Ireland [since 1995]?” asked a surprised Cancelo. “I think it’s going to [happen] this Thursday.”
Portugal are smarting from October’s two home games when they struggled to crack Ireland’s defensive shape before Szoboszlai’s injury-time equaliser for Hungary denied them a perfect four wins from four.
It is possible on Sunday that all four nations will still have a chance at World Cup qualification if Armenia and Ireland – ranked 104th and 62nd in the world respectively – beat countries ranked 37th and fifth.
It is more likely that Portugal and Ronaldo will put on a show. If so, the FAI’s 21,000 season ticket holders will quickly realise that Ireland does not have a game of the same substance in Dublin until the opening group match at Euro 2028.
REP OF IRELAND (possible): Kelleher; Coleman, O’Brien, Collins, O’Shea, Scales; Ebosele, Cullen, Coventry, Ogbene; Idah.
PORTUGAL (possible): Costa; Cancelo, Dias, Inácio, Semedo; Vitinha, Neves; Silva, Félix, Leão; Ronaldo.
Referee: G Nyberg (Sweden).
