Was the last week all a dream?
No, Ireland beat Portugal 2-0 at home on Thursday and scored an injury-time goal in Hungary on Sunday to win 3-2. Magic.
So, we’ve qualified for the World Cup?
No, afraid not. Having finished second in our group, we now enter the draw for the playoffs.
When will this draw take place?
The playoff draw will be at 12pm on Thursday in Zurich. We will be running a live blog of the draw here at irishtimes.com.
How will the draw work?
There will be 16 teams, divided into four pots. Each team will contest a semi-final, with the eight winners advancing to a final. The four winners there will complete the 16 Uefa teams advancing to next summer’s World Cup.
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Hang on a second... that all sounds a bit confusing.
Okay, so the eventual 12 runners-up from the European Qualifiers group stages (Ireland are one of those teams) will be ranked from 1-12.
Pot 1 in the playoff draw will comprise the four top-seeded teams; Pot 2 will incorporate teams 5-8; Pot 3 the sides ranked 9-12. Pot 4 will house the four teams qualifying to this stage via the Nations League. For the playoff draw they are ranked 13-16.
Where are Ireland ranked?
Ireland were ranked 62nd entering last week’s international window, but Fifa will be issuing official updated rankings on Wednesday. Those rankings will be used to determine seeding positions in the playoff draw. Ireland’s ranking will have improved on the back of the wins over Portugal and Hungary – likely to leave them somewhere in the mid-50s.
And how will the draw work exactly?
The four teams from Pot 1 will be drawn against the four teams from Pot 4. The four teams from Pot 2 will be drawn against the four teams from Pot 3. The teams in Pot 1 and Pot 2, because of their better seeding, are guaranteed a home semi-final.
Four paths to playoff finals will also be confirmed at Thursday’s draw – Paths A, B, C and D.
Each path will include two semi-final pairings – the winners of a Pot 1 v Pot 4 fixture will play the winners of a Pot 2 v Pot 3 fixture. So, Ireland’s potential final opponents will be narrowed down to two countries on Thursday. A draw will also be conducted to determine which semi-final winner is to have home advantage for the final. All games – semi-finals and finals – will be single-leg knock-out matches.
When will these games take place?
Although the fixtures are yet to be set, the semi-finals are provisionally scheduled for Thursday, March 26th, and the finals for Tuesday, March 31st.
So, it’s win or bust?
Yes. But there is a kicker. Within the additional guidelines in relation to these playoffs, there is provision for the losing semi-finalists to play a friendly on the second of those dates. As one pair of semi-finalists will have been designated a home fixture for the final, both governing bodies would need to have plans in place to host that potential fixture before playing their semi-final.
Fifa states: “As the two defeated semi-finalists are asked to play a second match in the international window of March 2026, the teams of the same path shall arrange quadrilaterally that a friendly match takes place at the venue that was initially reserved for the final.”
Who can we meet in a playoff semi-final?
That is yet to be fully determined. Ireland will either be in Pot 2 or Pot 3, depending on how some of the remaining European qualifiers go.
But how is it shaping up right now?
The current seeds come with a health warning, as the remaining fixtures and the updated Fifa rankings will alter the final configuration of the four pots. Ireland’s ranking of 62 is certain to improve when the updated list is announced on Wednesday, so they will at least leapfrog Albania (61).
The below pots are based on teams currently occupying second place in their respective group. Scotland, for instance, could overtake Denmark at the top of Group C when they meet in Hampden on Tuesday.
Pot 1: Italy (current Fifa ranking, 9th), Turkey (26), Ukraine (27), Poland (33)
Pot 2: Scotland (38), Czech Republic (44), Slovakia (46), Albania (61)
Pot 3: Republic of Ireland (62), North Macedonia (65); Bosnia & Herzegovina (75), Kosovo (84)
Pot 4: (Nations League qualifiers): Wales (34), Sweden (40), Romania (47), Northern Ireland (69)
What are the key fixtures to look out for?
- Wales v North Macedonia, Tuesday, 7.45pm
Both teams are on 13 points, behind table-toppers Belgium on 15 points in Group J. Belgium play Liechtenstein on Tuesday, so this game is all but certain to be a contest for second. A draw would be enough for North Macedonia to pip Wales because of a superior goal difference. As Ireland are ranked higher than North Macedonia but lower than Wales, Heimir Hallgrímsson will be hoping the home side “have a Macedonia” in Cardiff.
- Austria v Bosnia & Herzegovina; Tuesday, 7.45pm
Austria are top of Group H with 18 points, with Bosnia second on 16. A home win or a draw in Vienna would see Austria qualify automatically as group winners and leave Bosnia in second. Austria (24) are ranked higher than Ireland, while Bosnia (75) are below us in the rankings.
Is it possible to rewatch Troy Parrott’s injury-time winner too many times?
No, absolutely not.
