It’s hard to be optimistic about our chances tonight against Germany. After dropping five points early in the group, with a loss to Poland and a draw with us in Gelsenkirchen, they have stitched together five straight wins and now control the group, much as we expected.
They’re back to the team that mastered the World Cup in Brazil last summer, they’re in the winning groove again and could well be champions in France next summer.
When announcing his initial 40-man squad – yes, it beats me too – Martin O’Neill said: “Sitting in all night against Germany would be tantamount to disaster.” I totally understand how he feels that a good performance, even in defeat, is crucial for morale ahead of the game in Warsaw, but while few managers are content watching their team on the back foot for long periods, this German team forces that predicament on all opponents.
In their wins over Scotland and Poland last month, with Toni Kroos and a fit again Bastian Schweinsteiger controlling the midfield area and dictating the tempo, Germany had 72 per cent possession. I’m sure both the Poles and Scots had a game plan to try and disrupt their rhythm, but both were forced on to the back foot continuously by the sheer class of their opponents in possession.
Advanced positions
Mats Hummels – made to look foolish in Borussia Dortmund’s 5-1 trashing by Bayern Munich on Sunday – will be partnered by Jérôme Boateng in the centre of their defence. The pair initiate their team’s passing moves, allowing the fullbacks, Emre Can and Jonas Hector, to play in advanced positions, almost like wingers. Their shape then becomes a 2-2-6 formation. O’Neill, no doubt, will have a plan to disrupt Manuel Neuer’s service to Hummels and Boateng, but Schweinsteiger and Kroos are brilliant at finding space and time to receive the ball too.
While Ireland may try to force Germany in to long kick-outs in the hope of retrieving possession in the aerial scraps, this will only work occasionally. Just like the Dubs versus Kerry in the All-Ireland final, the Germans will eventually find ways out from the back when the goalkeeper’s distribution and the movement and touch of the players is so good.
Pressing up high on a continuous basis will leave us over-exposed in the midfield area, so the lesser of these two evils is to accept that the German team will have the majority of possession. We must make sure that we are solid, strong and disciplined behind the ball, with a clarity of shape and understanding of individual responsibility all over the field, but particularly in front of our back four. I would like to see a return to the 4-4-1-1 system used in Germany in last October’s draw, rather than the diamond shape O’Neill has been employing – that would leave us too exposed in wide areas.
If Cyrus Christie and Robert Brady are to play as our full-backs they will need support and protection in front of them. The intelligent movement of Müller and Mesut Özil from outside to inside and their constant rotation with Mario Götze and Ilkay Gündogan consistently teased Scotland and Poland in to mistakes.
I would suggest Jon Walters and Aiden McGeady would be best suited for the wide roles. I know McGeady hasn't played much this season, but both players understand what is required and are capable in varying ways of doing some damage in the opposition half. If David Meyler replaces Whelan, he will have a massive job protecting the area in front of our centre backs. Germany always try to find attackers in space in the centre around the penalty area and their precise tiki-taka passing can be devastating for defenders. Vigilance and concentration from us are, then, crucial here.
With McCarthy assisting Meyler in the middle, I feel Hendrick could be the one to pressure and rattle the often immaculate Kroos, while also making runs to support – perhaps – Shane Long in the central attacking position. Long's combative style and bit of pace could expose Hummels' deficiencies, just as Walters did late in the away game when he moved inside. Of course a lot of this sounds quite negative and is mostly focused on the opposition's quality, but it's the reality: the Germans are back in form. A good clear shape and aggressive but disciplined defending can give O'Neill's team a platform to get something from the game. An open game could see us demolished again.
Taking risks
At Hampden, Scotland, with very little possession, managed to score twice, and went in at half-time level at 2-2. Both goals came from set-plays. And in neither situation did Neuer look the world’s best goalkeeper, nor Germany the world’s best team. O’Neill will be hoping that we can create more of those situations to embarrass the champs again. Roy Keane talked in recent days of the importance of the players being brave, clever and taking risks in possession. Of course he’s correct, but we will need brave and heroic performances all around the pitch tonight with and (italics) without the ball.
This will be the toughest examination, but the good news is if we fail, there’s another chance on Sunday. I just hope there’s another a hero to be celebrated, one like John O’Shea who rescued a point in Germany.
We’d all settle for that now, I’d say.
