In an age of single-striker systems Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s Premier League goal drought may have already ended Manchester United’s title hopes. This is the stark truth of the one-up-top ploy adopted by those with championship pretensions: the centre-forward has to deliver on most game-days.
Ibrahimovic is not doing so. He last scored in the league five weeks ago and José Mourinho’s side are eight points from the summit after 10 matches.
Compare this with the top four’s No9s. Sergio Agüero’s double in Manchester City’s 4-0 rout at West Bromwich Albion on Saturday made it seven goals in seven league starts. Pep Guardiola’s team have 23 points and lead Arsenal and Liverpool on goal difference.
Alexis Sánchez has six in nine starts as the Gunners' main man. At Liverpool Roberto Firmino has four in nine and Diego Costa's eight in 10 for Chelsea have been key in their rise to fourth. They are seven points ahead of United, who, never mind a 21st title, appear outsiders for a Champions League finish.
Ibrahimovic has four in 10 games, half that of Costa, the Premier League’s leading scorer. The Swede last netted on 10 September when he pulled a goal back for United in the 42nd minute of the Manchester derby at Old Trafford.
Ibrahimovic had two further chances before the break. He missed and a goalless sequence of 498 minutes began.
Ibrahimovic was signed by Mourinho as his totem – the man to personify the Portuguese's muscular style who would do for United's attack what Didier Drogba did for Chelsea when Mourinho led them to consecutive Premier League titles in 2004 and 2005.
The Swede, though, has come to be the unwanted embodiment of United’s woes. As his fortunes have gone south, so have the team’s.
United have not won in the league for more than a month – the 4-1 victory against Leicester City on 24 September. They have not scored for four weeks – Anthony Martial’s goal in the 1-1 draw with Stoke City on 2 October. The last time they scored away was on 18 September – Marcus Rashford’s goal in a 3-1 defeat at Watford.
In a particularly disappointing outing against Sean Dyche's side on Saturday United had 37 shots of which 12 were Ibrahimovic's. Yet still he failed. At the end the 35-year-old could have sealed a precious three points when Paul Pogba found him near Tom Heaton's goal but Ibrahimovic choked once more.
It was the same tale at Anfield in the 0-0 draw with Liverpool a fortnight ago when a Pogba cross fell to him. Sandwiched between was a missed opportunity to equalise at Chelsea that might have stopped United being routed.
In all competitions Ibrahimovic has only one goal in his past 10 appearances – the winner against Zorya in the Europa League at Old Trafford on 29 September. He has scored once on the road all campaign, in the opening-day 3-1 win at Bournemouth.
These are awful figures for a footballer who trumpeted his arrival at the club with the declaration: “I am coming.” Ibrahimovic may need a second one if the barren run continues, though the issue may be one he can do nothing about: age.
The mind struggles to recall any champion side being spearheaded by a striker in his 36th year. No reminder is required of how the Premier League is a more attritional test than Ligue 1, where Ibrahimovic operated in the previous four seasons.
The statistics show how difficult he is finding the gulf between English and French football. In 31 PSG appearances last season Ibrahimovic scored 38 times, or every 67.2 minutes. In 2014-15 it was 19 in 24 outings at 105.4 minutes; 2013-14 was his poorest but the rate was still 26 in 33 – every 106.5 minutes; and in his opening PSG term his 30 in 34 came at a goal every 99.1 minutes.
At United the ratio is a goal every 225 minutes. Last season Ibrahimovic provided 13 assists for PSG, to follow six, 11 and eight. There have been zero for United.
He has become a peripheral figure. It appears time to drop him. Rashford’s three goals in six starts is a better ratio and have come despite him being deployed out wide. The 19-year-old’s cocktail of raw speed, trickery and finishing ability is unique in United’s squad and a central role may give them the X-factor so desperately needed.
After the goalless draw with Burnley Ander Herrera said: “I was speaking with Juan [MATA]and we both agreed we have never experienced something like that on the pitch. We controlled the game for 90 minutes and to not score is unbelievable.”
The words underline the fact that United’s issue is not creating chances but finishing them. This is the precise role Ibrahimovic was hired for. His most fallow run since 2007 comes as his manager’s fight to arrest the side’s listing form caused him to be sent to the stands on Saturday.
For this Mourinho is likely to face a Football Association charge of verbally abusing Mark Clattenburg, the referee. He is already in trouble for comments made about Anthony Taylor, the match official, before the draw at Liverpool.
None of this would matter if United were winning. For victory they need goals. Now Mourinho has to decide whether he can trust Ibrahimovic to start supplying them.
(Guardian service)
