With only two friendlies to go before Ireland's first game at Euro 2016, the temptation is to start mentally ticking off the names of the 23 players who will make the cut for France.
But what happened to Rob Elliot on Tuesday night demonstrates the pointlessness of premature prognostication.
As Erik Sabo’s cross was met by Miroslav Stoch, Elliot moved right then dived sharply left, and he was already clutching at his stricken right knee by the time he hit the ground. On Wednesday it was confirmed that he had ruptured the anterior cruciate ligament and will be out of the game for at least six months.
So nobody can be written in or out of the picture just yet. Even Paul McShane, who was beaten by Sabo for Slovakia’s first, and then scored an own-goal, can take consolation from the fact that if only he can stay fit, it’s still more likely than not that he will make the trip.
When this squad is announced there will be more disappointed Irish players than ever before, because manager Martin O’Neill has become accustomed to working with a very large group.
At the squad announcements you sometimes glance down the huge list of names and wonder, why is he naming preliminary squads of nearly 40 players?
Madness
Over recent matches, the method in the manager’s madness has become more apparent.
There are so many players involved that nobody is allowed to feel indispensable, but his handling of the group has been skilful enough to ensure that nobody is made to feel irrelevant either.
Small details can have a big impact. After the Switzerland game, Darren Randolph gave an example of how things have changed since the Trapattoni years: at least he can be sure that O'Neill knows his name. "Yeah, that's one difference. [O'Neill] doesn't call me 'keeper'."
Trapattoni’s philosophy was to display his trust in the top tier of players by seldom changing his first XI. The positive side of this was that the starting players got to know each other’s games very well.
The negative side was that the squad dynamic soon began to fossilise. It was hard to get into the Ireland team and almost as hard to get out of it, and the players left to rot on the bench soon stopped believing that they had any meaningful role to play.
The new management team has struck the right balance between building up the confidence of the first team, and encouraging a spirit of healthy competition in the larger group.
O’Neill has also shown much more tactical flexibility than Trapattoni, who always drilled the players in the same 4-4-2 system. Ireland played 4-4-2 on Friday night, but on Tuesday it was a midfield diamond, with Cyrus Christie and Stephen Ward told to get forward as much as possible.
Distant memory
The time when Irish players were thought to struggle in any formation that wasn’t 4-4-2 is now a distant memory. The increasing sophistication of the English game means they’re all playing for teams that vary their formation, sometimes several times within the same game.
So confident is O’Neill in his players’ ability to adapt to different ways of playing that he doesn’t even give them advance warning of what the tactics are going to be.
Christie revealed on Tuesday night that the players had only learned about the tactical change to the diamond shortly before kickoff.
“He just told us the formation before the game, that we were playing a diamond. [As a full-back in that system] you’re out there on your own, you’re isolated at times and it’s a tough role to play. But I’ve enjoyed it, Martin O’Neill gives me the freedom to play, and I think I thrive off it.”
Insight
Friday had yielded a similar insight from Alan Judge, who played in a wide midfield role against Switzerland.
Judge, who usually plays more centrally, had not been told ahead of time what his role would be.
“The manager keeps it close to his chest. I didn’t know until we got to kick-off.” Even training during the week had given him no inkling of what lay ahead “because the manager mixes it up”.
Judge got on with it.
“As a player you can’t just expect to do what you want to do. The manager put me out on the right. At half time, Roy said it wasn’t really a game for us getting on the ball, because they had the majority of possession. So he said, this is how you show the manager he can trust you off the ball. Hopefully I did that tonight.”
O'Neill was surprised to hear after Tuesday's game that Wes Hoolahan had admitted he'd be considering whether to retire from international football after the tournament.
This was news to O’Neill, who argued that Hoolahan, who will turn 34 in May, has plenty of mileage left at the top level.
“Did he say that? . . . I think Wes is kind of young, he hasn’t exactly played an awful lot of games. So I think he’s a young 62-year old . . . he has a young face, he’d pass for 18 or 19 or 20 at the end of the day. I think there’s no reason for him to consider that at this minute. If he is considering it, I think he should consider the positive side [of staying on].”
Those who hope to see Hoolahan in an Ireland jersey for a little while longer can relax in the knowledge that these days, the Irish team is not an easy one to walk away from.
