RUGBY:Time for a miracle then. And, indeed, rarely have an Irish team looked so in need of divine intervention. Maybe the green hordes will invade the French capital, and the French will adopt Ireland purely out of self-interest, but the Parisian air is far from thick with Irish optimism. Not alone has there been no sign that the real Ireland will stand up, but of all the teams that they had to run into when hanging onto the precipice by their fingernails, it's those dastardly Pumas.
How Ireland got to this sorry impasse is a debate that has been raging, and will continue to rage, long after this World Cup. They have hardly ticked one box, be it in arriving at any one game resembling optimum physical shape or in getting selection, squad/player management, tactics and skill to the level where this "team" should be.
The cost of the failure to pick up a bonus point against Georgia in fortuitous victory, or in clear-cut defeat to France, is now manifest. Failing an unlikely Georgian win over France, it is imperative France pick up a bonus point from that Pool D game in Marseille, which kicks off two hours before Ireland's. Otherwise, Ireland will also have to win by 50 points.
Presuming France sail on to 15 points with a bonus-point win over Georgia, to usurp the Pumas Ireland will need to win by more than seven points and score at least four tries, while also making sure Argentina don't score four tries.
Niall O'Donovan maintained yesterday that Ireland would seek to win the game first, by taking any early three-pointers that might become available. Fair enough, once it's not taken too far. For Ireland to take a leaf out of the Munster Manual of Miracles, patience needs to be combined with unrelenting pressure. Admittedly, the Pumas have no soft underbelly and Ignacio Corleto is no Henry Paul under the high ball. Nonetheless, it only requires a try every quarter, preferably one in the first to sow some seeds of doubt in Argentinian minds, or two by the hour mark to keep the dream alive.
But Ireland will need a sea change in approach and execution. They look stale and stagnant, and little about an uninspired selection, up front especially, suggests it is about to happen. They will need to secure primary possession and vastly quicker ruck ball, while abandoning the pedantic, percentage, patterned rugby they have been employing to date, before upping the tempo.
Improving the lineout would assuredly have been helped by the inclusion of Malcolm O'Kelly (with Alan Quinlan a better option either way as an impact replacement). That might also have facilitated a more ambitious restart policy, actually trying to reclaim the ball. Similarly, Ireland must fight for every scrap of possession, not just kick long for territory from the back.
To this end, it's mildly encouraging that as well as Denis Hickie's finishing skills, Geordan Murphy is on board, if with discernible reluctance on the part of Eddie O'Sullivan. Absolutely assured of an aerial bombardment from the brilliant Juan Hernández, aside from the novelty of an occasional counterattack, Murphy, Hickie and Shane Horgan have to be allowed to kick with a real chance to chase and contest the ball.
It would also help if Ireland played to the Leicester man's strengths and, hallelujah, occasionally the fullback hit the line on the outside channels to either kick and chase or use the wingers, as he does innately well. But again, little about Murphy's employment over the last while even hints this coaching ticket or team wish to play to his strengths.
Failing some real go-forward from a singularly disappointing backrow, one fears Ireland will again play virtually everything up the middle and use Gordon D'Arcy, especially, and Brian O'Driscoll - who actually has looked sharp if anyone else were on the same wavelength - as battering rams.
Even in the good days, Ireland struggle against a blitz defence, and there are now clear signs everyone else is reading Ireland like an open book.
Besides, at this World Cup, Argentina are the only country yet to concede a try. Their defence is suffocating and opportunist. As Ireland's defensive coach Graham Steadman noted yesterday, they crowd the channels around the ball carrier very effectively to pick off intercepts. They also drift and blitz, and their swarm defence is augmented by an astonishingly resourceful scramble defence. It's worth recalling that in keeping France tryless they made almost double the number of tackles France did, 110 to 60, despite missing 17.
Furthermore, nobody gets quick ball against these Pumas and unless Paul Honiss takes them seriously to task or Irish players suddenly start hitting rucks quicker and harder, that ain't going to change.
"They're called the Pumas but they should be called the hyenas," as Frankie Sheahan observed after the Test in Buenos Aires.
As with the France-Ireland game last week, you cannot ignore form, both individually and collectively. On a line through France, Namibia and Georgia, Argentina are 27, 45 and 26 points better at this World Cup.
It would be a "travesty", as O'Driscoll has admitted, if Ireland went through the World Cup without one performance, and deep down, you sense that's the most even they dare hope for now.
However, the team's confidence is shot, as must be squad spirit, for the coach gave up on any notion of the "squad" some time ago. By contrast, Argentina are buoyant, Marcelo Loffreda having used all 30 of his players and started 25 of them to date, and only Juan Martin Leguizamón is missing from the first-choice XV that did for France.
It would be as wonderful as it would be illogical to witness, but whatever about a miracle, all the available evidence points to a win for the Pumas.