Pool Six/Ulster v Stade Francais: Stade Francais may be the better team and may have outclassed Ulster less than a week ago but this is Ravenhill on Heineken European Cup day. Does that count for anything anymore?
One thing is for certain, French opposition cringe at the thought of trotting onto this winter landscape and not since Toulouse escaped with a narrow win in 2001 have Ulster slipped up at home in the competition.
Also, Stade have sour memories of this part of the rugby world. With the English absent from Europe in 1999, they came to Belfast as piping hot favourites for the semi-final only to be sent packing by an inspirational performance from David Humphreys.
Alas, that was the last time Ulster were a force in this competition. True, they spanked Leicester here last year and two seasons ago they had three points to spare against the Parisian outfit.
Mark McCall's team are an inferior lot, however, even when compared to last season under Alan Solomons. Only Kevin Maggs, Humphreys and, more recently, young winger Tommy Bowe raise the Irish management's eyebrows anymore.
Their Celtic League form has improved of late but only a complete metamorphosis will keep the European flame alight. A win here, followed by two more, over Gloucester and Cardiff early next year, with at least one bonus point to boot, may get them through.
For starters they need to get their set-piece play working again after last week's diabolical display.
"The forwards have been working hard on getting the set-pieces right this week," offered manager John McComish. "The scrums weren't so bad but the lineouts did need extra attention."
Injured duo Simon Best and Andy Ward are targeting the New Year's Day match against Connacht for their return.
McCall has largely kept faith with the pack that underperformed in Paris, although Gary Longwell does force his way back in at the expense of Rowan Frost. Also, Matt Muschin returns from injury to the bench.
Longwell will bring plenty of experience to help Paul Shields' darts find an Ulster player.
In the scrums, Ronan McCormack and Rod Moore will be expected to find parity with the South American duo of Rodrigo Roncero (Argentina) and Pablo Lemoine (Uruguay).
Then all Ulster have to do is circumnavigate a way around, or through, the world-class Stade back line that welcomes back Agustin Pichot and Juan Hernandez after their trip home to Argentina last week to face the Springboks.
The manner in which McCall has been able to cast Tyrone Howe to the wilderness shows there is plenty of finishers if Ulster create chances.
Bowe is quality, while Scott Young is beginning to make good on the promise he showed two seasons agao by keeping Andrew Maxwell out. If Humphreys has recovered from the damaged foot he sustained last week and Maggs and Jonny Bell lay a solid platform the wingers will play their part. The centre battle will be shuddering as Brian Liebenberg and Stéphane Glas like confrontation. It's so hard to see this happening though when the two packs are compared.
If the likes of Olivier Brouzet and Remy Martin perform like they do at home Stade's superiority should prevail. Then there is this Ravenhill factor. Today's result will confirm whether the old ground's mystique is alive or rapidly fading.
ULSTER: B Cunningham; S Young, J Bell, K Maggs, T Bowe; D Humphreys, K Campbell; R McCormack, P Shields, R Moore; G Longwell, M McCullough; C Feather, N Best, R Wilson. Replacements: N Brady, B Young, R Frost, M Muschin, N Doak, A Larkin, P Steinmetz.
STADE FRANCAIS: J Hernandez; M Bergamasco, S Glas, B Liebenberg, R Poulain; D Skrela, A Pichot; R Roncero, M Blin, P Lemoine; O Brouzet, M James; P Rabadan, R Martin, S Sowerby. Replacements: A Castola, Y Montes, D Auradou, R Jechoux, O Sarramea, G Quesada, J Fillol.
Referee: Nigel Williams (Wales).
EC Formguide: Ulster - 21-16 v Cardiff (h); 13-55 v Gloucester (a); 10-30 v Stade (a). Stade Francais - 39-31 v Gloucester 39-31 (h); 38-15 v Cardiff (a); 30-10 v Ulster (h).
Leading try scorers: Ulster - Tommy Bowe and David Humphreys one each. Stade Francais - Sylvain Marconnet three.
Leading point scorers: Ulster - David Humphreys 39. Stade Francais - David Skrela 44.
Verdict: Stade Francais to win.
