Gerry Thornley studies a dramatic upturn in fortunes and tries to find out whether it came about by accident or design at last summer's World Cup.

Two years ago, when Wales came to Dublin they were the worst team in the world. This week, they arrive buoyant and cock-a-hoop, ready to take on the world.

Forever alternating between paroxysms of despair and hope, it was ever thus with Welsh rugby. Only this time their optimism seems well founded. The Welsh team which limply raised the white flag in losing 52-10 in Dublin two years ago were probably beaten even before they took the field. Not this one.

Having hit on a formula which the players enjoy, whether by accident or design, today's team has two ingredients which that one didn't have: the requisite fitness levels for Test rugby, and confidence.

"Rugby is a very fickle game and the confidence the players have generated over the last condensed period of 18 months I think has been the key," reckons former Welsh outhalf-turned-TV-pundit and columnist Jonathon Davies. "For a period of 18 months all the top Test teams, whether they liked it or not, were compelled to be together, and this Welsh team have come out of that with their confidence still intact.

"Players aren't scared of making any mistakes. Whereas in the past they would have been scared to try things in case they were dropped, now they have the confidence to try things," says Davies, like the true free spirit he was as a player.

Davies and all those in Welsh rugby agree improved fitness levels - previously something of an extended joke - have been critical too. The World Cup campaign intensified the process, but these things take time, and it was Steve Hansen's employment of his former Canterbury colleague Andrew Hall as fitness coach 18 months ago which kick-started the process.

"He has made massive strides in terms of the physical co-ordination and aerobic fitness of the Welsh players," confirms Simon Thomas, rugby writer with the Western Mail, who highlights the "brutal" treatment of loosehead Adam Jones as a prime example of the tougher new regime.

Against Scotland last week, as in the World Cup games against New Zealand and England, despite scoring a try Jones was substituted shortly after the half-hour mark again for no apparent reason other than that he was off the pace. Even at 19 st Jones has shed 3½ st in the last couple of years, but when asked what the prop had to do to begin lasting into the second half, Hansen retorted: "I guess the guy has to get fitter."

Traditionalists will disagree, and lament the emergence of such entities as Neath/Swansea Ospreys or Celtic Warriors, but the regionalisation of the game has undoubtedly streamlined a previously overloaded top tier in the Welsh club game.

"It's very difficult to put a finger on it," admits Davies of Welsh rugby's rejuvenation, "but the regional game has definitely helped. It's increased competition for places within fewer professional teams and I think that's the biggest problem in the Celtic nations, the lack of competition for places."

The proof is in the results. In the European Cup this season, the Welsh
regions have won 14 out of 30 matches,compared to 10 out of 31 last year (when Llanelli accounted for half of them), and Llanelli have Biarritz at home in the quarter-finals.
Yet the upturn with Team Wales, per se, had begun before this season – during the World Cup and their concluding games against the All Blacks and England, to be precise. There had been little inkling of what was to come during a run of 11 successive defeats, as Hansen maintained the World Cup warm-up games were but an unwanted interruption to the training camps which were instilling greater fitness levels and skills.

Hansen had been prompted into a brave, longer-term strategy by a low

point in his reign. “The only time I had any doubt was during the Six Nations last year when we got beaten by Scotland,” he admitted on Thursday.

"I thought: 'How the hell can we get out of this?' I couldn't see any way out
except to start again. We needed to start again and be prepared to take the flak, because I knew it wasn't going to be easy.
"We have come a long way since the Six Nations of last year. It's because we got the opportunity to do the physical work we needed to. We got time to work on our skills and we had the time we needed to come together as a group."
Even so, Wales had laboured to World Cup pool wins over Tonga, Canada and Italy, when the Azzurri had been grossly mistreated by a schedule of four games in 14 days. Already assured of a quarter-final place for the final pool game against the All Blacks, Hansen picked what was regarded as a second-string line-up to preserve his frontliners for an anticipated quarter-final against England.
Stephen Jones had been second-choice outhalf to Ceri Sweeney. Winger Shane Williams had gone to the World Cup as a reconverted, third-choice scrumhalf. Rhys Williams, aka Rhys Lightning nowadays, and the other half of the Williams Twisters, hadn't been a first-choice winger either.
After five minutes, full back Garan Evans had the misfortune to be in the path of Joe Rokocoko at full tilt, and on came Gareth Thomas. With one bound, or one staggering Shane Williams sidestep, Wales were free.
They had nothing to lose.

Probably believing it was to be his only outing at full back, the elusive Thomas, previously a winger converted into a centre, ran most freely of all. Wales led with 20 minutes to go, and Hansen kept that team intact for the
quarter-final when they outscored England  by three tries to one but were undone by Jonny Wilkinson. Though they lost both games, Wales had threatened to shred a predictable World Cup formbook and, to an aghast media, Hansen declared they had  been practising to play this way all along, but didn't want to show their hand.
The debate raged in Wales as to whether it fell into place by accident or design.
"There was an element of disbelief amongst some of the supporters and some of the media," admits Davies. "There were also conflicting reports from the camp that that was the way they were trying to play all along. Only the coaching staff and the players will ever know, but most probably there was a bit of both."
Simon Easterby, in his fifth season at Llanelli, is well positioned to comment on the Welsh rejuvenation.
"I think going back to the World Cup they had a bit of a philosophy to go out and play rugby, not particularly well structured, but they caught sides, particularly New Zealand and England, unawares and probably went into those games without any pressure on them. They have a certain number of players who can play that type of rugby. Certainly their back three are very strong, and it is an area they focus on a lot, and they've a number of open-field runners which they haven't had in the past."
Another key player in the transformation has been Iestyn Harris. Signed expensively from rugby league amid much trumpeting the saviour of Welsh rugby, not surprisingly Harris struggled to justify the initial hype.
No Welsh player cut a more forlorn figure in that lame defeat at Lansdowne Road two years ago than Harris, who didn't look to have the heart for it as Irish ball carriers unimpeded through his channel.
It also marked Graham Henry's last match in charge, and Steve Hansen's first act was to drop the apparent misfit. Harris was also dropped after the opening defeat of last season's Six Nations to Italy, where he played at outhalf, before returning by the end of the championship to cement his place
at inside centre.

He began to flourish there, particularly after a highly effective outing an end-of-season game against the Barbarians, and last week against Scotland he was magnificent in having a hand in all three tries as well as two more which were over-ruled.

Davies makes the point that in rugby league the stand-off, which was Harris's position, is actually the second receiver, therefore the player in the secondary decision-making role, which is actually more akin to an inside centre or second five-eighth in rugby union. It gives Harris fraction more time and space to weigh up his options, and not only can he explore gaps more readily from inside centre, he also slip into the "outhalf" slot off second third phase, while his distribution is the to the width Wales are playing with.
Still, mindful the pressure was off against the All Blacks and England, the jury was as to whether it was a blip or for real until last weekend. But Wales resumed where they left in the World Cup with a daring opening quarter against the Scots. They've seen the light and aren't for turning. They are enjoying themselves too much.
Now Wales may yet be as sad to lose Hansen as he is to lose them, but family reasons as much as anything else have compelled him to return to New Zealand and take up Henry's offer to renew their coaching alliance with the All Blacks.
"Of course it was going to be sad leaving behind a group of players and people with whom you have shed blood and then some, as well as sad times. We lost 11 games in row but only through adversity have we grown up and matured. You can only enjoy  the better times once you've experienced the hard times."
It could be the new motto for Welsh rugby.