Canada’s ruling Liberal party was facing a humiliating loss in upcoming elections. Then came Donald Trump.
Party leadership contenders vied to display strength against the US president, his tariffs and his desire to take over Canada – and Liberals’ poll ratings began surging. Under new prime minister Mark Carney, with the slogan “Canada strong”, the party is now narrow favourite to win a historic fourth straight term.
The former Bank of England governor has become emblematic of global leaders enjoying a ratings bump after going head to head with Trump.
Polling in several countries, from Mexico to Ukraine, shows even unpopular leaders like France’s Emmanuel Macron are enjoying some relief from voters as they seek to ward off menaces including tariffs, the withdrawal of military support and even the threat of US conquest.
“You have this bully that is smashing the system,” said Nathalie Tocci, director of Rome’s Institute for International Affairs. “Rather than just kissing the ring, these leaders basically stand up and politely say ‘no’, and their voters appreciate the fact that they are not being colonised.”
Canada
Carney has followed his predecessor Justin Trudeau in taking a pugnacious approach to Trump’s threats. Trump “wants to break us so America can own us. We will not let that happen”, the prime minister said on Sunday as he called the upcoming election for April 28th.
Carney (60), who ran the Bank of England and Bank of Canada, is touting his technocratic experience and status as a political outsider while riding a wave of anger and patriotism to edge ahead of Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative opposition leader.
Poilievre, a Trump-aligned darling of the Maga right, had channelled discontent over the cost of living under Trudeau into a 24-point poll lead by the start of January. That has collapsed in the wake of Trump’s onslaught.
Career politician Poilievre is trying to reframe his narrative, turning his “Canada is Broken” slogan into “Canada First”.
But Carney has the momentum: 43 per cent of Canadians think he is best placed to face Trump, against 34 per cent for Poilievre, an Angus Reid Institute poll found this month.
Mexico
Mexico’s leftwing president Claudia Sheinbaum was expected to clash with Trump over his threats of military action against cartels and tariffs on Mexican exports to the US.
But the country’s first female leader has won plaudits for a cool-headed approach, delaying retaliatory measures and moving to crack down on migration and fentanyl trafficking.
Trump himself has been effusive, calling Sheinbaum “a wonderful woman”, while her already-high approval ratings have soared to 85 per cent, according to El Financiero newspaper.
Sheinbaum’s approach “strengthens her and gives her the image of someone with a strong personality”, said Francisco Abundis of pollster Parametria.
Even Sheinbaum’s critics praise her deft diplomacy, though many argue the US private sector was the main force convincing Trump to delay tariffs – while confrontational Canada got almost exactly the same deal as Mexico.
Analysts say the poll boost and threat of Trump could help Sheinbaum deflect bad economic news and wrangle her fractious party. “Trump is a godsend for justifying an underperforming economy,” said Carlos Ramírez, a consultant at Integralia.
So far, no leader has paid a significant price domestically for standing up to Trump – even Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, who was forced to receive a planeload of Colombians deported from the US hours after rejecting them.
“He spun it as: this is what dignity looks like, this is what Colombians look like when they’re standing up for themselves,” said Sergio Guzmán of consultancy Colombia Risk Analysis.
Ukraine
Ukrainians have rallied around President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the weeks since Trump assailed him in a bruising Oval Office encounter.
“We may hate him. We may be harsh on him. But he’s our president,” said Olena Halushka of the Kyiv-based non-profit International Centre for Ukrainian Victory.
Zelenskiy’s overall approval rating has shot to 67 per cent while his net approval is 38 per cent – the highest scores since December 2023 – even as he seeks to mend relations by accepting Trump’s proposed minerals deal and partial 30-day truce.
Trump’s comments were seen as “unfair, a stab in the back” and “a wider attack on the country, rather than just criticism targeting the president”, said Anton Hrushevsky of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
The fracas poses a dilemma for opposition groups looking to avoid siding with Trump. Even ex-president Petro Poroshenko, whom Zelenskiy sanctioned last month, stopped short of repeating Trump’s claim that Ukraine’s leader is a dictator.
Whether Zelenskiy’s popularity bump lasts could depend largely on the trajectory of the war and outcome of peace negotiations.
“When people see Zelenskiy resisting aggression, they trust him more; but when we have a more healthy relationship with partners, they start focusing more on internal issues,” Hrushevsky said.
France
Emmanuel Macron, president of France, showed his diplomatic nous in Washington last month as he combined flattery of Trump with gentle rebuttals of false claims that Europe is supporting Ukraine solely through loans.
Although his work to shore up support for Kyiv was undone by the bust-up with Zelenskiy the following week, the visit won the French president plaudits across Europe. It also brought a surprise poll boost in France, where voters have long criticised Macron’s perceived arrogance and unpopular policies, such as pension reforms.
Confidence in Macron climbed six percentage points to 27 per cent in an Elabe survey this month, after rising three points in February. Although his overall popularity remains low, the boost returns Macron to similar levels following last summer’s Paris Olympics.
Meanwhile, far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who has tried to maintain distance from Trump, saw her approval slip one point to 35 per cent.
Elsewhere in Europe, Trump’s arrival has played out differently – especially in countries geographically closer to Russia. “We haven’t seen the Trump bump in eastern Europe,” said a former Baltic foreign minister.
“I see more of a reluctance to criticise the US, as our security depends so much on them and on Nato solidarity. I hear a scared silence as our security guarantor realigns with our enemies.”
UK
Keir Starmer’s poll ratings had been on a relentless downhill path since he walked into 10 Downing Street last July. That suddenly changed when he travelled to Washington last month.
Starmer gave a masterclass in buttering up Trump, conveying a letter from King Charles that offered the president an “incredible” second state visit while delivering key messages and pushing back politely when challenged.
Trump held open the possibility of sparing Britain from the worst of his tariffs and approved a controversial deal involving a shared military base in Mauritius.
Days later, Starmer convened leaders of a “coalition of the willing” in London to help secure a future peace in Ukraine. After the self-imposed marginalisation of Brexit, Britain – and Starmer – seemed to be at the centre of the world stage.
Opinion polls showed a double-digit rise in support for Starmer and even the rightwing press said it had been the prime minister’s best week – though his approval ratings remain deep in negative territory.
Though the British economy is mired in low growth and shaky public finances, Starmer will hope he has at least earned a fresh hearing.
The leaders will be seeking to build on their growing popularity, but Trump could still hand out devastating tariffs or force Ukraine to accept Russia’s terms. The resulting damage to their economies and security could make any poll boost much harder to maintain. − Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2025
