Ever since the landmark Paris climate agreement forged 10 years ago came into force, an annual assessment of the carbon “emissions gap” has been a reality dose.
Invariably, it charts poor progress and is issued days before annual UN climate Cop gatherings, informing the scale of collective action needed to address an overheating planet.
Produced by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), it details the shortfall between commitments and what is likely to be achieved based on pledges from almost 200 countries.
These come in the form of “nationally determined contributions” (NDC), a key aspect of the Paris pact that is critical to containing global temperature rise to within 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial times.
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The latest iteration issued in advance of Cop30 in Brazil comes with a brutal assessment of trends. The world is on track for 2.3 to 2.5 degrees of warming this century if all national emissions-cutting plans out to 2035 are implemented in full.
This would make vast tracts across the Earth unbearable to live in, cause catastrophic, irreversible damage to vital ecosystems and act as an accelerant on destruction from extreme weather events.
UNEP acknowledges some progress, while – remarkably – there is still time to apply proven solutions, notably in pursuing clean energy and “transitioning away” from fossil fuels as agreed at Cop28.
Good news ends there. A failure to cut emissions quickly enough means the world is “very likely” to breach the 1.5-degree rise “this decade”.
This brings us into “overshoot” territory and includes more damaging heatwaves and droughts, accelerating nature loss and sea-level rise and potential collapse of ocean currents.
[ EU states locked in negotiations on 90% emissions-reduction target ]
While some impacts may be temporary, crossing this threshold increases risk of hitting irreversible “tipping points”.
Cop30 will be a success if it adopts collective measures to force the dial to where there is a better chance of bringing the planet to a safer place.
There are grounds for some optimism.
More than 60 countries have so far submitted enhanced national plans on emissions, setting out how they will curb carbon for the next decade.
As the world’s largest emitter, China has increased its ambition and is the global leader in pursuing renewables by some distance.
It contrasts with the United States, the world’s second biggest emitter, checking out of the Cop process and scaling up fossil fuels, while the European Union has undermined its global climate leader credentials by delaying the publication of its revised NDC.
UNEP director Inger Andersen said: “Now is the time for countries to go all in and invest in their future with ambitious climate action – action that delivers faster economic growth, better human health, more jobs, energy security and resilience.”
Simon Stiell, the UN’s top climate official, said countries were laying out clear stepping stones towards net zero emissions, but progress was not happening fast enough.
In spite of geopolitical tensions, acceleration must start at Cop30.
