Deadly explosions within a day of one another in New Delhi and Islamabad this week have brought a new edge to an already tense relationship between India and Pakistan. Some thoughts below on what it means for these two nuclear-armed states a few months after a short military conflict brought them to the brink of war.
A dangerous spiral
India confirmed on Wednesday that it was treating as a terrorist incident a car blast near the Red Fort in Delhi on Monday that killed eight people and wounded at least 20. The government has not said who it blames but Indian media report that police are investigating a possible link with Islamist militant groups based in Pakistan and operating in the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir.
A day after the attack in Delhi, a suicide bombing outside a judicial complex in Islamabad killed 12 people and injured 26. Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA), an offshoot of the Afghanistan-based Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), said it carried out the attack to hit “the judges, lawyers, and other staff who enforce Pakistan’s un-Islamic laws”.
Relations between Islamabad and New Delhi have been on the floor since May when India launched air strikes deep inside Pakistan, claiming it was targeting militant groups responsible for an attack in Kashmir the previous month. Pakistan retaliated with its own air strikes and in four days of fighting, the Pakistani air force, using Chinese equipment, shot down a number of India’s most advanced, French-manufactured fighter jets.
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A ceasefire has held for the past six months and neither side seems eager to resume military hostilities, despite India’s warning that it would treat any future militant attack on its territory as an act of war. But both are on edge, with each blaming one another for supporting those they blame for recent attacks.
Pakistan is concerned about India’s recent efforts to deepen its ties with the Taliban in Afghanistan, which comes as Islamabad is stepping up a counterterrorism campaign against groups it claims the Taliban are backing. The Islamabad bombing has complicated Turkish efforts to get Pakistan and the Taliban talking.
Pakistan, which has long enjoyed an “iron friendship” with China, recently signed a defence agreement with Saudi Arabia that in theory extends its nuclear umbrella over the Gulf kingdom. Islamabad has also worked its way into the affections of Donald Trump, partly by nominating him for the Nobel peace prize and making cryptocurrency deals with members of his family.
After a quarter of a century during which Washington nurtured India as a bulwark in Asia against China, Trump has casually trashed his relationship with prime minister Narendra Modi and imposed steep tariffs on India because of its purchases of Russian energy. Relations have stabilised in recent weeks and a US-India trade deal is imminent, but Modi eloquently reaffirmed India’s autonomy in September when he stood alongside Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin at a summit in the Chinese city of Tianjin.
After years of escalating tensions, China and India have restored direct commercial flights, eased visa restrictions and lifted export controls on some goods. Putin will visit India next month when he and Modi will sign a number of bilateral agreements.
Modi’s government has been measured and cautious in its response to this week’s blast in Delhi, waiting for two days before labelling it a terrorist attack and not yet pointing the finger of blame. As more evidence about the attack emerges in the coming days, such restraint may become more difficult to sustain.
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