Ahead of a meeting in London on Monday with the leaders of Britain, Germany and Ukraine, Emmanuel Macron said of Europe that “we have many cards in our hand”. It’s true, but perhaps not in the way that he meant it.
Shuffling the pack of rivals, partners and adversaries
One of the criticisms Donald Trump’s National Security Strategy makes of Europe is about the war in Ukraine and the Europeans’ lack of enthusiasm for making peace with Vladimir Putin.
“It is a core interest of the United States to negotiate an expeditious cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, in order to stabilize European economies, prevent unintended escalation or expansion of the war, and reestablish strategic stability with Russia, as well as to enable the post-hostilities reconstruction of Ukraine to enable its survival as a viable state,” the document says.
“The Trump Administration finds itself at odds with European officials who hold unrealistic expectations for the war perched in unstable minority governments, many of which trample on basic principles of democracy to suppress opposition. A large European majority wants peace, yet that desire is not translated into policy, in large measure because of those governments’ subversion of democratic processes.”
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Coupled with his demand that Europe should pay for its own defence, Trump seems to be sending the same message that Kaiser Wilhelm II delivered to Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1912: “I find you rattle too much – with my sabre.” Europe is now borrowing the money to buy its own sabre, but while it is taking more responsibility for its own defence, it remains content to outsource its diplomacy to the United States.
Military deterrence is only effective as such if it is part of a broader diplomatic strategy but where Russia is concerned, Europe has abandoned direct diplomacy. This has led to its exclusion from the US-led negotiations about Ukraine that have been conducted in Moscow, Florida and Geneva in recent weeks.
There is a serious risk, and even a likelihood, that these negotiations will end in a settlement that includes a new security architecture for Europe that will be designed to serve the interests of Washington and Moscow. Any direct negotiation with Russia would involve morally unattractive compromises but it is better that Europe should make those painful choices itself rather than leaving them to Trump to make on its behalf.
Europe should also think again about its policy towards China, which has been subordinate to its relationship with Washington since 2019. This was when the EU identified China as a partner for co-operation, an economic competitor and a systemic rival.
China remains a partner for co-operation in some areas, such as climate change and global health, and it has become a more dangerous economic competitor. The trade imbalance represents a real threat to Europe’s industrial base and a tough negotiating strategy on trade with China, including protective measures, is in the EU’s interest.
It is China’s status as a strategic rival that deserves another look now that Trump has left Joe Biden’s idea of a geopolitical contest between democracies and autocracies in tatters. In her 2023 speech on China, Ursula von der Leyen identified as a systemic threat Beijing’s promotion of an alternative vision of the world order “where individual rights are subordinated to national security, where security and economy take prominence over political and civil rights”.
This was the logic behind the EU’s use of national security as a justification for following Washington’s lead in restricting the sale of high-end technology to China, including semiconductor equipment.
But now that Trump is taking aim in his national security strategy at “the sovereignty-sapping incursions of the most intrusive transnational organisations” including the EU itself, it is more difficult to argue that Beijing represents a greater threat to the post-war international order than Washington does.
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