Taiwan’s legislature has voted to initiate impeachment proceedings against president William Lai, accusing him of undermining the self-governing island’s constitutional order and democracy. The move follows the president’s refusal to sign legislation that would have given local governments a greater share of government revenue.
The main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and the smaller opposition Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) hold a majority in the legislature and the motion passed by 60 to 51. But the opposition lack the two-thirds majority needed to enforce the impeachment when it comes to a roll-call vote on May 19th.
Friday’s vote means that Mr Lai will be called before legislators to explain his actions in January before May’s vote and the KMT plan to hold consultations around the island to press their case against him. Mr Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have accused the opposition of using impeachment as a political game designed to humiliate the president.
Mr Lai won the presidential election in 2024 in a three-way race with 40 per cent of the vote and the DPP lost its majority in the legislature. The party attempted to regain the majority this year with a series of recall votes aimed at unseating opposition politicians but every one of the votes failed to dislodge the incumbents.
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Mr Lai’s tough approach to relations with Beijing and his demand for more defence spending has strained relations with the KMT, which favours a more co-operative relationship with mainland China.
But what triggered the constitutional crisis was his refusal, unprecedented since Taiwan turned to democracy almost 40 years ago, to promulgate legislation passed by lawmakers.
Mr Lai and his supporters argue that the opposition measure would damage Taiwan’s fiscal sustainability and they point out that many of the local authorities that would receive the extra revenue are controlled by the KMT. The opposition’s simple majority is enough to pass a vote of no-confidence in premier Cho Jung-tai but the KMT is reluctant to trigger fresh legislative elections.
Friday’s vote comes amid heightened tension between Beijing and Tokyo after Japan’s prime minister Sanae Takaichi suggested that an attack on Taiwan would justify the deployment of Japanese forces in the island’s defence. Beijing has demanded an apology and discouraged its citizens from visiting Japan, causing a major blow to the tourist industry there.
The United States defence department said this week that Beijing may judge an amphibious invasion of Taiwan as the only prudent option if it chooses to annex the island by force. In an annual report by Congress on China’s military capabilities, the Pentagon said the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was refining plans for a number of options to unify with Taiwan by force.
“During the past year, the PLA conducted operations that exercised essential components of these options, including exercises that focused on blockading key ports, striking sea and land targets, and countering potential US military involvement in a conflict,” the report said.
The Pentagon believes that Beijing is considering a number of options short of an invasion, including a campaign of disruption aimed at degrading public confidence in Taiwan’s ability to defend itself. The PLA could use air and naval forces to blockade the island but the Pentagon concludes that an amphibious invasion, although risky, may be the likeliest option.
“A large-scale amphibious invasion would be one of the most complicated and difficult military operations for the PLA, requiring it to achieve and maintain air and maritime superiority and rapidly build up and sustain its forces. Such an approach would carry both enormous risks for China as well as providing the most decisive potential option for forcing unification on Taiwan,” the report said.
“We lack information about whether Beijing has determined the viability of other unification options, and the decisiveness of [an amphibious invasion] will probably make it an increasingly more appealing option as the decision space for other options is constrained.”
