Huge protests in Iran reflect real popular anger against the leadership of the Islamic Republic, which is weaker than it has been for decades. It makes a tempting target for Donald Trump, but any American intervention could backfire.
Under pressure
Two weeks after the start of demonstrations against the government in Iran, president Masoud Pezeshkian on Sunday promised to address the issues that drove many to join them.
“I promise the dear people, perhaps 90 per cent of whom have concerns, that we will address their worries. We will get through this crisis,” he told Iranian state television.
But he distinguished between peaceful protesters with legitimate concerns and those he described as rioters and “trained terrorists” who he claimed were being motivated by outside forces to destabilise the country. And as Pezeshkian was making his conciliatory remarks, the authorities were intensifying a brutal crackdown on the demonstrations at the cost of hundreds of lives.
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The protests began on December 28th in response to the collapse of the Iranian currency, the rial, which hit a record low of 1,450,000 to the dollar, and soaring prices. What started among the merchants in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar spread quickly as activists, students and truck drivers joined protests all over the country.
The protesters’ focus shifted from the economy to the Islamic Republic itself and the 86-year-old supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. As the demonstrations spread and some turned violent (a significant minority of the reported casualties are from the security forces) Donald Trump threatened to strike at the Iranian leadership in support of the protesters.
Pezeshkian was elected president in 2024 on a promise to negotiate a nuclear deal with the United States and its allies in order to lift the economic sanctions that have impoverished his country. But Trump wanted Iran not only to abandon its civilian nuclear programme but to give up its missiles and regional alliances too, a demand Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu described as the “Libya option”.
Weakened by the Israeli and American 12-day air war last June and the neutralising of its proxies in Hamas and Hizbullah, the leadership of the Islamic Republic is under unprecedented pressure. Hamzeh Safavi, a political analyst based in Tehran and the son of one of Khamenei’s top military advisers, told Le Monde last week that many are looking across the Persian Gulf to Saudi Arabia as a model for reform.
“It cannot be ruled out that the next leader adopts a more pragmatic or reformist approach. For years, debate has centred around the possible emergence in Iran of a figure akin to [Saudi crown prince] Mohammed bin Salman, someone capable of driving controlled change while preserving the system, as opposed to simply maintaining continuity or hardening Iranian power,” he said.
In the meantime, the leadership still commands the loyalty of the country’s numerous security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. And the army, which has in the past stayed out of internal political protests and refused to confront demonstrators, has threatened to join the crackdown on “hostile terrorist groups”.
The Wall Street Journal reports this morning that Trump will receive a briefing on Tuesday about options for military action in Iran. But Tehran has threatened to retaliate with strikes against US assets in the Middle East and Safavi warns that any American intervention would be risky and costly, with no obvious benefit.
“American interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan – both much weaker adversaries – did not result in decisive victories,” he said. “Paradoxically, a weakened Iran that remains in place might better serve American interests than the complete collapse of the Islamic Republic, which could create an arc of instability and uncontrolled armed groups that would threaten the entire region. In my view, it is in the interest of the US, Iran and regional countries for Tehran and Washington to reach a new, balanced and fair comprehensive agreement.”
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