Before the Ukraine war, Europe relied on Russia for much of its energy. Now it’s becoming dependent on the United States instead.
Europe’s new energy trap
Moments after the leading lights of Europe’s political and security establishment leapt to their feet at the Munich Security Conference to give Marco Rubio a standing ovation last Saturday, they started briefing everyone who would listen that they didn’t really mean it. The secretary of state’s honeyed words had not fooled them, they whispered, and Europe remained determined to de-risk its relationship with the United States, now seen as an unreliable ally if not something worse.
Rubio’s speech and his subsequent visits to Hungary and Slovakia made clear that the Trump administration’s sentimental attachment to the old Continent sits alongside an undimmed hostility to the European Union.
But the EU, already in hock to Washington for its security, is becoming increasingly reliant on American liquefied natural gas (LNG) as it swaps an energy dependency on Russia for one on the US.
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Before Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU imported much of its natural gas from Russia by means of pipelines running through Ukraine, Poland and the Balkans and under the Baltic Sea. Gas is mostly used for household heating, power generation and industrial processes that need high temperatures, and the pipelines carry it at high pressure directly from gas fields.
LNG is methane gas that is turned into liquid by cooling it to -160 degrees and transported in tankers to regasification plants where it is reheated and turned back into gas. LNG imports from the US are almost twice as expensive as pipeline gas and a 2024 study by Cornell University found that US LNG’s carbon footprint is 33 per cent higher than coal’s.
Last month, EU energy ministers agreed to phase out imports of Russian gas by the end of 2027, starting on March 18th and requiring companies to exit existing agreements or face fines. Russia’s share of EU gas imports has already dropped from around 45 per cent in 2021 to about 12 per cent in 2025.
During the same period, imports of LNG from the US tripled, accounting for 60 per cent of total LNG imports to the EU last month. Last summer, as part of a deal with Donald Trump to avoid higher tariffs, the EU agreed to spend $750 billion on US energy products by 2028.
Europe’s gas imports from Russia were mostly based on long-term contracts with state-controlled energy company Gazprom, making them vulnerable to a decision by the Kremlin to turn off the tap. US LNG is sold by numerous private companies in a liberalised market but Trump could use export controls or emergency powers to halt or reduce sales to Europe.
EU energy commissioner Dan Jørgensen acknowledged Europe’s vulnerability after he announced the phasing out of Russian gas imports, describing as a “clear wake-up call” Trump’s threats to annex Greenland.
“I definitely hear this when speaking to energy ministers and heads of state all over Europe, that there is a growing concern, which I share, that we risk replacing one dependency with another,” he said.
Jørgensen said the commission was actively seeking alternative suppliers to the US and plans to deepen energy ties with Canada, Qatar and Algeria. But the EU has not identified a maximum threshold for LNG from the US, which could account for 75 to 80 per cent of LNG imports by 2030.
Meanwhile, Washington’s 2025 National Security Strategy has identified energy dominance as a top strategic priority, spelling out how it can be used as leverage in foreign policy.
“Expanding our net energy exports will also deepen relationships with allies while curtailing the influence of adversaries, protect our ability to defend our shores, and – when and where necessary – enables us to project power,” it says.
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