The outcome of southern Africa’s four general elections in 2024 may represent a tipping point for the region’s former liberation movements, which have dominated its political landscape since colonialism ended.
South Africa, Botswana, Mozambique and Namibia all went to the polls this year, and the political parties that led the fight against white-minority rule in each nation were in power in advance of the national ballots.
Indeed, six former liberation movements in southern Africa that were at the forefront of securing their country’s independence in the last century have governed continuously since then.
The situation in the region contrasted starkly with the fate of liberation movements and their leaders elsewhere on the continent, many of which have lost power via the ballot box or the barrel of a gun since their independence.
However, election results from southern Africa in 2024 suggest that after decades of mismanagement and misrule, voters are losing faith in the abilities of their political leaders.
In May, the African National Congress (ANC), Africa’s oldest liberation movement, suffered its worst ever election result, securing just over 40 per cent of the vote in South Africa’s general election.
This result forced President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC, in power since 1994, to form a government of national unity with smaller parties to stay in power.
Then in October, the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), in office since independence was secured from Britain in 1966, was well beaten in its national elections, leaving it in the political wilderness.
The BDP saw its seats in parliament fall from 38 to just four, reducing it to the status of fourth largest party in the lower house. The Umbrella for Democratic Change, a left-wing alliance, is now in charge of Botswana.
The outcome of Mozambique’s general election on October 9th has also been extremely detrimental to the ruling Mozambique Liberation Front’s (Frelimo) fortunes, even though it was declared the winner of the poll on October 24th.
Opposition parties have accused Frelimo, which has governed since colonial rule ended in 1975, of rigging the election, which has led to nationwide protests that rights groups say have left more than 110 people dead.
The claims of electoral fraud in Mozambique have been backed by international election observers, and Frelimo now finds itself under pressure to relinquish power.
Writing recently in the academic journal the Conversation, University of Maputo politics professor Luca Bussotti said Mozambique finds itself in a critical situation that threatens its stability.
Bussotti believes that no matter the outcome of the Mozambican Constitutional Council’s deliberation on the results, “what is certain is that Mozambique will never be the same”.
Bussotti believes that because a “large part of the population is discontented” with Frelimo’s rule, Mozambique’s incoming president, Daniel Chapo, will have to take an authoritarian approach to ruling the country.
The only way around this, said Bussotti, was for Frelimo to cancel the elections and appoint a transitional government that would undertake to prepare for a rerun of the national poll.
Southern Africa’s last general election of 2024 was in November in Namibia, which secured its independence from apartheid South Africa in 1990. It saw the South West Africa People’s Organisation (Swapo) extend it 34-year rule for a further five years.
Swapo won 53 per cent of the vote, down from 65 per cent five years ago. But the result defied pre-election predictions that it faced losing power for the first time.
The election was marred by technical problems, including shortages of ballot papers and long waiting times for voters to cast ballots in opposition strongholds. As a result, opposition parties have rejected the election’s outcome and launched a court challenge to have it overthrown.
According to political analyst Jakkie Cilliers, 2024′s election results suggest southern Africa’s liberation movements face a similar fate to their counterparts across the continent that secured their independence decades before them.
“In nations across the rest of Africa, after about 30 years of independence, the younger generations coming through voted out, or ousted, the old political guard. We are now seeing the same thing happen here,” he said.
Cilliers, founder of the Institute for Security Studies regional think tank, said an anti-western “cold war” mindset that liberation movements in southern Africa had held on to over the years had not served them well.
“As governing parties, they have not managed to develop their economies in a modern way that benefits their people. Consequently, they are rapidly losing voter support, primarily in urban areas,” he said.
No national elections are planned in Angola and Zimbabwe, the two remaining southern African countries where liberation movements remain in power, until 2027 and 2028, respectively.
Cilliers believes that if Angola and Zimbabwe hold credible elections next time out, their ruling parties will be unlikely to hang on.
“The key to change in these countries is if they hold free ands fair polls. If they do, then the regional trend we are seeing – that support for former liberation movements is steadily falling away – should continue,” he concluded.
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