With Nicolás Maduro suddenly deposed, this should be María Corina Machado’s moment.
But Venezuela’s main opposition leader, out of public view abroad, faces difficult choices after the US seized Maduro to face trial – when to return to her homeland and whether to call her supporters on to the streets to press for wholesale regime change.
Machado has ridden a rollercoaster over the past month, going from the glory of being awarded a Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo in December to receiving a public humiliation from US president Donald Trump at a news conference on Saturday, where he said she lacked the support or respect needed in Venezuela to be leader.
Many of Machado’s supporters were dismayed by Trump’s snub and his apparent willingness to work, at least on a temporary basis, with Maduro’s deputy Delcy Rodríguez, who is now Venezuela’s acting president. But if Machado was alarmed by those developments, she has not shown it.
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Since Saturday’s dramatic US military operation, the opposition leader has mostly kept a low public profile. In a brief interview on Monday night with Fox News, she said she had not spoken with Trump since October but thanked him for his “courageous vision” and “historic actions”. She vowed to return to Venezuela “as soon as possible”. Her spokesperson declined several requests for a conversation.
On Monday, she posted a message on X thanking Trump “for his firmness and determination in carrying out the law”, saying “the freedom of Venezuela is very close”, but avoiding mentioning her own future.
Allies of the 58-year-old politician, nicknamed the “Iron Lady” by some, insist she is not despondent and is maintaining contacts built up over a long period with the Trump administration. She is biding her time, awaiting the right moment to return to Venezuela and claim the crown she believes is hers.
“She has faced obstacles like this during her entire political career,” said one person in regular contact with her. “But whenever she hits a wall, María Corina has survived by finding a way around it. She has done that 15 times already.”
By far Venezuela’s most popular politician, Machado won a sweeping victory in an opposition primary in 2023 but Maduro banned her from running in the presidential election the following year.
She named a retired diplomat, Edmundo González, in her place but his landslide win at the ballot box, evidenced by polling station tallies, was ignored by Maduro. Instead the president claimed he was the victor, without producing evidence.
A pro-US free marketeer, Machado is popular among Venezuelans because she has never compromised on her aim of bringing freedom to her country by negotiating with the regime, as with so many other opposition politicians. That same steeliness and closeness to Washington is what makes her unpalatable to the ruling “Chavistas”, who fear they will end up in jail under a Machado administration.
Less clear are Trump’s intentions towards Machado. Former US officials say he was disappointed when his bet on then-Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó to unseat Maduro failed during his first administration, and he is reluctant to wager heavily again on the opposition.
Despite her public praise of him, the US president has not met Machado and has rarely spoken about her or mentioned fresh elections in Venezuela. Instead he has stressed the need to open up the oil industry and to crack down on drug trafficking.
Some influential US investors in Venezuelan debt and oil industry players also want to see Machado kept out of any Trump plan for the South American nation, viewing her as too radical. They prefer what they see as the safer option of working with Rodríguez to make quick profits and have lobbied in Washington for this option.
“The US wants results, not people who talk,” said one person involved in deal making with the Venezuelan government. “Can María Corina deliver? No, she can’t.”
Machado’s team rejects such talk, saying that unless Venezuela is stable, democratic and respects the rule of law, it will not succeed in attracting the massive amounts of capital needed to rebuild its shattered oil production and fully exploit the world’s largest reserves of crude.
But in the wake of Maduro’s ousting, the situation inside Venezuela is far from stable. It remains unclear, diplomats and analysts say, whether Rodríguez would be able to consolidate her authority and maintain order in an increasingly tense and nervous country.
[ Venezuela launches crackdown on dissent after US capture of Nicolás MaduroOpens in new window ]
Gangs of armed government supporters have been distributing weapons in poorer neighbourhoods in a move apparently aimed at bolstering the regime’s defences against any attempted uprising.
Any move by Machado to return home would be fraught with peril. She was extracted from a secret hiding place in Venezuela to Oslo for the peace prize ceremony in a covert operation with US support that involved wearing a disguise and making a perilous small-boat journey.
With the regime on high alert after Maduro’s capture, her return could be more dangerous.
“With so many weapons being distributed, the situation is like a tinderbox,” said one senior executive in Caracas. “It would be a big mistake to bring back María Corina now. If she appeared in the streets, it could set the country ablaze and start a civil war.” Instead, he argued, it was better for her to await an orderly transition to fresh elections.
Marco Rubio, US secretary of state, suggested in interviews on Sunday that Rodríguez’s interim rule would give way to a democratic transition, saying it was not realistic to expect fresh elections to be held quickly in Venezuela.
One person close to Machado said she was ready to be patient. “She’s been in the fight for decades – she can wait a few more months, even a couple of years, if need be.”
[ Who is Nobel Peace laureate María Corina Machado?Opens in new window ]
Others in the opposition appear less so. Leopoldo López, another opposition leader in exile in Madrid after escaping from Venezuela, said one of the first steps would be for the regime to “free the political prisoners, stop repression against dissidents” and allow the return of political exiles.
“Maduro is out of Venezuela and facing justice for his crimes,” he said. “The transition has already started, it won’t be overnight but it has already started and it has to be a transition to democracy.”
- Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2026
