For Pakistan’s populist opposition leader Imran Khan, one man above all looms over his legal woes and the instability shaking the nation: the country’s army chief General Asim Munir.
Since his release on bail last week, Khan has alleged that Munir ordered his arrest on what he called trumped-up corruption charges, accusing the general of threatening “democracy, our constitution, fundamental rights”.
“He’s basically dismantling the future of this country to protect himself,” Khan, whose anti-corruption and welfarist platform has made him wildly popular, told reporters after he was freed by Islamabad’s high court.
The former prime minister’s challenge to a man that few Pakistanis have previously dared openly criticise risks sparking the most serious confrontation between civilian politicians and the military since the nation’s return to democracy in 2008.
[ Pakistan: Imran Khan granted bail for two weeksOpens in new window ]
Even after the restoration of civilian rule ended open rule by the generals, Pakistan’s 500,000-strong army has continued to govern the nuclear-armed south Asian nation from behind the scenes.
In the days after Khan’s arrest, supporters of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party (PTI) protested around the country, breached the army headquarters in Rawalpindi and even set fire to a senior general’s home in Lahore. Khan has distanced himself from the violence.
Pakistanis are now bracing for a long spell of instability as Khan, who aims to return to power in elections due by October, fights a barrage of court cases on allegations from corruption to terrorism.
While analysts say he is the strong favourite to win the election, Khan’s supporters decry the allegations as a plot by Munir and prime minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government to remove him from the contest.
Bilal Gilani, the executive director of pollster Gallup Pakistan, said Pakistan’s future was likely to be decided not by elections or public opinion, but by who won the power battle between the military and Khan.
“One side has the ability to bring the public out. The other side has the ability to bring the arms out,” Gilani said. “We’ve just seen the first round...There’ll be more rounds of violence before everything settles.”
Cricket star
Khan’s opponents dismiss his criticism of Munir as a gambit to pressure the generals into helping him return to power. PTI officials claim that many within the army sympathise with the former cricket star’s party.
Munir, who was appointed army chief by Sharif in November, has not publicly commented directly on Khan’s claims. Without naming the former prime minister, the army on Monday decried what it called “propaganda warfare, unleashed against the army leadership”. The army did not reply to a further request for comment.
“Restraint will no longer be exercised against perpetrators, spoilers and violators who attack military installations,” it said.
Human rights groups have expressed concern. Amnesty International accused the army of trying to “crack down on dissent by exercising fear”.
Munir was named chief of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency in 2018, but was transferred to a different role by Khan after less than a year. Khan alleges Munir wants to block his return to power to protect his current position.
While the army supported Khan’s rise to the premiership in 2018, the relationship soured and he lost power in a parliamentary no-confidence vote in April last year.
Simmering tensions between Khan and the army burst into the open in November when, after being shot in the leg during a rally, he accused a separate military official of conspiring with the government to assassinate him, prompting vehement denials.
The army insists it does not meddle in civilian politics and has long portrayed itself as a guarantor of stability, from leading the Covid-19 response under Khan to participating in relief efforts during devastating floods last year.
Yet many do not believe the army leadership is truly neutral. Hasan Askari Rizvi, the author of multiple books about Pakistan’s military, said anti-army vandalism was fuelled by the popular belief the generals sided with Sharif. “If the army wants to begin resolving this crisis, it must first begin to be seen as non-partisan and neutral,” he said.
Even some close to the “establishment”, as Pakistan’s military deep state is euphemistically known, worry tensions are getting out of control. Ghulam Mustafa, a retired lieutenant general, said that while the army “must be very upset over how events unfolded”, it should work to bring Khan and Sharif together.
“Hopefully, I think an olive branch will be extended [to Khan],” he said. “Alternatively this crisis will grow.”
The political turmoil comes as ordinary Pakistanis struggle through the country’s most severe economic crisis in years. Annual consumer price inflation hit 36 per cent in April and the country’s $4.4bn in foreign reserves is enough to cover only about a month’s worth of imports.
Analysts warn the country is at imminent risk of defaulting unless it is bailed out by creditors such as the IMF, China or Saudi Arabia, but the instability leaves potential saviours even less likely to lend. - Financial Times Limited