China has announced the replacement of foreign minister Qin Gang, one month after the former high-flying favourite of president Xi Jinping disappeared from public view.
Mr Qin’s sudden disappearance came as the government was trying to restore dialogue with Washington and conduct a charm offensive with European nations after several years of increasingly tense relations.
The affair has threatened to become an embarrassment for Mr Xi, who analysts say handpicked Mr Qin for the foreign minister role, in a year in which the Chinese leader embarked on an unprecedented third term in office.
China’s state news agency Xinhua said on Tuesday that the country’s rubber-stamp parliament, the National People’s Congress, had removed Mr Qin and replaced him with the country’s most senior diplomat Wang Yi, his predecessor as minister. The terse statement did not give further details.
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Mr Qin had a meteoric rise from assistant foreign minister in 2017 to his appointment as Chinese ambassador to the US in 2021 and foreign minister and a member of China’s cabinet, the State Council, in March.
But he abruptly vanished from public view on June 25th as he was preparing to attend a meeting of southeast Asian nations. The foreign ministry said at one point that his absence was due to “health reasons”, but it subsequently refused to give further explanation despite being constantly questioned about the matter at its daily press briefings.
Mr Wang (69) is also a member of the Chinese Communist Party’s elite 24-member politburo and served as foreign minister for nearly 10 years from 2013.
Mr Qin’s shock departure highlights a risk for Mr Xi in the first year of his third five-year term as leader. Most of China’s top leadership are close allies of the powerful leader, meaning there is less space for shifting blame in the case of failed policies or personnel decisions.
“You need to see these situations as opportunities for others to put pressure on Xi Jinping,” said Alex Payette, chief executive of Cercius Group, a consultancy that specialises in elite Chinese politics. “So this is a double loss. It is someone that you selected, and you come under pressure – that is bad.”
Jude Blanchette, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think-tank, said the situation was “unique” as Mr Qin was a trusted subordinate of Mr Xi.
“This doesn’t mean Xi’s power has been shaken, just that he occasionally makes a bad bet,” said Blanchette.
Blanchette said it would not fundamentally change Chinese foreign policy. “Xi was and will remain the dominant decision maker. Qin’s role was to implement Xi’s vision, and there are others who can step in to fill this role.”
Paul Haenle, a former China adviser to US presidents George W Bush and Barack Obama, said Mr Wang, who was well known to the US and the world’s other major powers, would bring continuity and predictability.
“During an obviously disruptive period for the Chinese foreign ministry, Wang Yi is one of the less disruptive choices to take over,” he said.
Dennis Wilder, a former top CIA China analyst, said Mr Wang was the “safest choice possible” after Mr Qin’s departure.
“Well known around the world, he will project continuity in Chinese foreign policy,” said Mr Wilder. “After an embarrassing 30-day absence, Xi needs to reassure the globe that there is no deep problem in the Chinese leadership [and] that Qin Gang’s problems are personal not national.” – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2023