The magnolia tree outside my window came out overnight on Monday, a couple of dozen pink flowers peeking out of plump, furry buds that looked like overgrown gooseberries. By midafternoon, many of the flowers had opened out and by five o’clock a couple of bees were humming around them, touching down gently on each one before moving along.
A neighbour came for a cup of tea on the balcony a couple of days later to admire the tree, which is the first on the compound to flower every year. Afterwards, we went for a walk in the hutongs near the Drum Tower and along the river nearby, joining the crowds enjoying bright sunshine and the first hint of warmth in the air for months.
Spring is here for sure, but as the saps were rising in Beijing the flags and security barriers were going up too because next week sees thousands of delegates arrive in the capital for China’s biggest political event of the year: the Two Sessions.
The Great Hall of the People on Tiananmen Square will host the weeklong parallel meetings of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the National People’s Congress (NPC).
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The CPCCC is an advisory body with its roots in the Chinese Civil War whose more than 2,000 members include business people, religious leaders, athletes, entertainers and members of the eight political parties allowed to operate alongside the Communist Party but not in opposition to it. It is part of the “united front” work that sees the party liaise with non-communist groups and individuals to advance its interests. Although it can make proposals, the CPCCC has no decision-making power.
The NPC is China’s highest organ of state power in China and with almost 3,000 members, the biggest legislative body in the world. Usually described in the English-speaking media as China’s “rubber-stamp” legislature, the NPC is made up of part-time, unpaid representatives who are elected in a process under the control of the party.
Although next week’s events will produce no adversarial debates or parliamentary high jinks, analysts around the world will be watching closely for information about China’s policy direction. Nis Grünberg of the German-based Mercator Institute for China Studies (Merics), which has been subject to sanctions from Beijing since 2021, believes the NPC will be a display of political unity.
“China faces serious socio-economic challenges at home, and recent global developments have added to the political uncertainty. For Beijing, strong leadership from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and strengthening China’s economic and technological resilience against external shocks are more necessary than ever – and the only way to ensure China’s long-term rise,” he said.
“The NPC will once again demonstrate how far the ‘party-fication’ of all political affairs in China has gone: the legislature is still an important platform for deliberation and exchanges between Beijing and local governments, but all its big decisions are predetermined in more important CCP organs, such as the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) and the Central Committee’s Third Plenum.”
Premier Li Qiang will outline the government’s economic priorities for this year on March 5th and announce annual targets for economic growth, unemployment, deficits and inflation. But international observers will also watch closely foreign minister Wang Yi’s press conference next Friday for evidence of how China plans to respond to Donald Trump’s upending of the global order.
Xi Jinping this week told senior officials to “respond calmly to the challenges posed by changes in both domestic and international situations”. And China’s foreign ministry said on Thursday that any attempt by Washington to peel Moscow away from Beijing was hopeless.
Trump’s embrace of Vladimir Putin has driven speculation that he is hoping to effect a “reverse Kissinger” by allying with Russia against China, just as Richard Nixon surprised the world in 1972 when he began a rapprochement with Beijing. US secretary of state Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that Russia was “increasingly dependent on the Chinese”, something he described as “not a good outcome”.
Xi and Putin reaffirmed their “no limits” partnership in a phone call this week; and on Thursday China’s foreign ministry spokesman, Lin Jian, dismissed American attempts to drive a wedge between them.
“China and Russia are two major countries. Our bilateral relationship has a strong internal driving force. It will not be affected by any third party,” he said.
“Both China and Russia have long-term development strategies and foreign policies. No matter how the international landscape changes, our relationship shall move forward at its own pace. The US attempt of sowing discord between China and Russia is doomed to fail.”
