Poland has warned that Europe’s biggest security threat is not Vladimir Putin but Nato members who lack the courage of their own convictions to face him down.
After eight years of prickly nationalist rule in Warsaw, foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski said the new Donald Tusk government was ready to “return to the group of countries creating Europe rather than defending themselves against Europe”.
From his strategic lookout point in central Europe, however, Sikorski warned Polish MPs in Warsaw on Thursday that the continent faced a make-or-break moment.
EU capitals’ support for Ukraine – or lack thereof – was pushing them towards a fateful choice “between a defeated Russian army beyond Ukraine’s border or a vicious Russian army on Polish borders”.
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Triggering a direct conflict with Poland or any other Nato member would end far worse for Moscow, Sikorski warned, given how its military and economic potential “pales in comparison to that of the West”.
“An attack by Russia on any of the members of the alliance would end in [Russia’s] inevitable defeat,” he said, noting that Nato has three times as many military personnel and aerial resources as Russia, as well as four times as many warships.
“Putin’s only hope is our lack of determination,” he added, after a busy week for pan-European security co-operation.
British prime minister Rishi Sunak used inaugural visits to Warsaw and Berlin to talk up a “new framework for co-operation on defence”. Warning that the British arms industry must be on a “war footing”, he unveiled a plan for joint development with Germany of a remote-controlled Howitzer 155mm artillery system.
Alongside Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg in Warsaw, Sunak promised to expand security industrial co-operation and boost British defence spending to 2.5 per cent of gross domestic product “as soon as economic conditions allow”.
Facing an ongoing German recession and a €100 billion defence fund that will be empty in 2027, meanwhile, Chancellor Olaf Scholz is facing growing pressure to boost his country’s defence spending on a sustainable basis.
London, Berlin and Warsaw have agreed to work more closely on the so-called European Sky Shield Initiative, aimed at closing holes in the continent’s air defence capabilities. But when it comes to land defences, Sikorski urged Berlin on Thursday to invest more in its eastern neighbourhood – a remarkable invitation given the two countries’ troubled history.
Thursday’s Sikorski speech was the latest address designed to move away from the former Law and Justice (PiS) administration. It spent much of its two terms in office locked in dispute with Berlin and Brussels on rule-of-law disputes.
Sikorski described the eight years of PiS foreign policy as a “series of misguided ideological assumptions, bad ideas, wrong decisions and omissions” that created a “loss of credibility and prestige”.
While Poland built up considerable credit in recent years, particularly in Washington, as the main defence hub for supplying Ukraine, Sikorski said Poland had banished itself “to the margins” in other key debates.
He said the new Warsaw administration would work to rebuild trust – and dependability – in both transatlantic and European channels. Rather than endless bickering with Berlin, a nod to the previous government, the foreign minister said it was time to realise – economically, politically and strategically – “Warsaw and Berlin need each other”.
On EU matters Sikorski said Poland would continue to lobby energetically for Ukraine’s full membership while participating constructively in debates about reforming voting rules. “The EU needs to function more smoothly if it is to enlarge and become a real, global power.”
