Catalans vote in an election on Sunday that could put to the test both their region’s long-standing pro-independence majority and its governability.
The president of Catalonia, Pere Aragonès, called a snap election after his minority government failed to push a budget through the regional parliament.
Polls suggest that his Catalan Republican Left (ERC) is vying with the fellow separatist Together for Catalonia (JxCat) to be the second force in the regional parliament. The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) appears set to win a second consecutive election after coming first in 2021.
Again, the PSC candidate for regional president is Salvador Illa, the Spanish health minister during the Covid pandemic.
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“The question this May 12th is: four more years of impasse and paralysis or of social progress and agreement between political parties?” said Spain’s Socialist prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, as he campaigned alongside Mr Illa in the region this week.
“Illa is the only one I see with the hope of governing,” he added. “The rest just want to put up obstacles.”
A big victory for Illa would be a major boost for Mr Sánchez, who argues that his controversial policies in the region, including an amnesty bill benefiting Catalans who face legal action for separatist activity, are paying off. However, although the Socialists have a clear lead in polls, their opposition to independence for the region and the fractured nature of the Catalan parliament means that they might not be able to form a government, as was also the case in 2021.
If that were to happen, the party that is runner-up will be crucial, deciding which of JxCat and ERC will be the primary pro-independence force in the next legislature. JxCat’s candidate for regional president is Carles Puigdemont, who has been in self-exile since leading a failed independence bid in 2017. He is expected to return to Catalonia in the coming weeks as a beneficiary of the amnesty and a strong result for his party could mean he will face an investiture vote to become regional president again.
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However, his party’s strident separatism contrasts with the more cautious approach of ERC and poor relations between the two could hamper any governing agreement. Also, it is possible that, for the first time in a decade and a half, parties campaigning for independence from Spain will not have a majority in the regional parliament.
The emergence of a new far-right separatist force, Catalan Alliance, further complicates the panorama.
“Our support will never come for free,” warned Catalan Alliance’s leader, Sílvia Orriols, whose immigration policies have drawn accusations of xenophobia, when asked about whether her party would take part in a new pro-independence governing majority.
Nationalist parties have also had to deal with the fact that the territorial issue has been pushed aside by other challenges in the region, such as a record-breaking drought, a housing crisis and poor results in international education reports.
“It’s the first time since 2010 that everyday matters are being talked about more than independence,” said Lola García, an author and columnist at La Vanguardia newspaper. “Those issues are more important for voters right now.”
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