Russian president Vladimir Putin has used his current position of strength in the war with Ukraine to change his defence minister, replacing the compromised Sergei Shoigu with technocrat Andrei Belousov, in a move that underlines the Kremlin’s need to ensure that massive military spending drives rather than destroys the national economy.
Shoigu (68) served as Russia’s defence chief for 12 years, but embarrassing defeats suffered early in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine exposed him to severe criticism from prominent Russian military bloggers and Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, who died in a mysterious plane crash shortly after launching a brief revolt last year to demand the sacking of Shoigu.
Putin could not be seen bowing to pressure by replacing Shoigu then, especially as the defence minister was a close ally and friend with whom he went trekking and fishing in Siberia, as captured in manly holiday snaps published by the Kremlin.
Russian troops are now on the front foot in parts of eastern Ukraine as Kyiv awaits more western weapons and fresh army recruits, so Shoigu can be moved to a prestigious but largely advisory post in the national security council without highlighting the failure of his forces to secure their expected quick and easy win in Ukraine.
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Shoigu’s reputation was tainted further last month, when erstwhile deputy defence minister Timur Ivanov was arrested on suspicion of taking bribes, in the first big corruption case for several years to target a senior official.
Belousov, until now a deputy prime minister and economic adviser to Putin, comes to the defence portfolio with no army experience but a reputation as an effective technocrat who favours a strong role for the state in the economy and – crucially – is loyal to Putin and has no great political ambitions of his own.
“It is now important for Putin to make sure that the enormous sums of money spent on war are not stolen. But Belousov will now ruin his reputation forever as an accomplice,” said Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“Belousov was responsible for technological development. The Kremlin believes he will technologise the economy and turn it into a military economy. And the military will pull GDP growth ... It’s essentially Soviet. Which is what the USSR blew up on,” he added.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that state spending on the military and security was now 6.7 per cent of Russia’s budget, and “we are gradually approaching the situation in the mid-1980s, when the share of spending on the security sector was 7.4 per cent ... This is extremely important and requires a special approach.”
“It is very important to integrate the economy of the security sector into the economy of the country so that it meets current needs,” he added. “The ministry of defence must be absolutely open to innovation, to the introduction of all advanced ideas, to create conditions for economic competitiveness. And that’s precisely why the president chose the candidacy of ... Belousov.”
Peskov said the appointment of Belousov (65) would not affect the role or responsibilities of Valery Gerasimov, the chief of Russia’s general staff, who was also lambasted by Prigozhin and military bloggers over failures in Ukraine.
“Importantly, Belousov will not manage military combat operations; this responsibility will bolster the autonomy of the general staff,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, head of political analysis firm R. Politik. “Putin’s primary objective is to enhance the state’s capacity to support military needs more effectively, while most elements of the existing ‘structure’ will stay intact.”
In signs of an emerging dynastic elite in Russia, the sons of two of Putin’s long-term friends and close allies were promoted: Boris Kovalchuk was made head of the national audit chamber and Dmitry Patrushev was promoted to deputy prime minister. His father Nikolai Patrushev – one of Russia’s most influential anti-western “hawks” – is to be given a new post after being replaced by Shoigu as secretary of the national security council.
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