European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s prospects of a second term in the top EU job have improved after a stronger than expected showing by her centre-right grouping in elections at the weekend.
The European People’s Party (EPP) won more than 180 seats in the European Parliament elections to remain the largest grouping by some margin. While the extreme right gained ground in a number of countries, the mainstream majority in the parliament remained intact. Negotiations are expected to begin this week as Ms von der Leyen tries to secure the necessary political backing for another stint as commission president.
Ms von der Leyen needs the support of a majority of the EU’s 27 national leaders to be nominated for a second term. The leaders are to meet next Monday to discuss the carve-up of senior positions, ahead of a full summit later this month. If Ms von der Leyen is the leaders’ pick to remain commission president, she will need the backing of a majority of MEPs in the 720-seat European Parliament to be confirmed.
[ Ursula von der Leyen leaves door open to a second term with far-right backingOpens in new window ]
The centre-right EPP, which includes Fine Gael, was slightly more upbeat about Ms von der Leyen’s prospects, based on election results from the vast majority of EU countries. One EPP insider said senior figures in the grouping were “grinning from ear to ear” on Monday.
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The previous EU coalition of the EPP, the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and centrists Renew won 400 seats between them. However, a minority of MEPs from those groups are expected to break ranks and vote against Ms von der Leyen. The parliamentary majority of the EPP, S&D and Renew was “a bit like Swiss cheese, full of holes”, one high-ranking commission official observed.
[ European Parliament groups jostle for position after election resultsOpens in new window ]
As a result, several sources indicated the commission president may need to strike a deal with other parties, such as the European Greens, to get over the line. Five years ago, Ms von der Leyen scraped through by a margin of nine votes in parliament.
Speaking in Berlin on Monday, Ms von der Leyen indicated she would “leave doors open” when asked whether she would accept support from more extreme right-wing parties, should mainstream allies fail to back her.
[ European elections: Why are counts so slow?Opens in new window ]
Ms von der Leyen sidestepped questions on whether she would look to rely on support from Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni’s hard right Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d’Italia). “The groups have yet to form and no one is clear who is in which group and how big individual groups will be,” said Ms von der Leyen. “To save time I will talk to those with whom I have worked well in the past, but that leaves doors open,” she said. If Ms von der Leyen ties up the support of national leaders, the vote in the European Parliament could take place as early as July.
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