France’s leftist and centrist parties have pulled hundreds of candidates from Sunday’s high-stakes election in a co-ordinated attempt to keep the far-right National Rally (RN) out of power.
By a deadline on Tuesday evening more than 200 third-placed candidates from the left and centre had dropped out as their parties sought to avoid splitting the anti-RN vote and decrease the likelihood of it achieving an absolute majority.
The figure, based on Le Monde data, represents more than two-thirds of the three-way races produced by last weekend’s first-round vote.
“An absolute majority seems very unlikely though we’ll need to conduct a poll to be sure,” said Mathieu Gallard at Ipsos, the pollster. But he added that it remained “very, very likely” that the RN would win the greatest number of seats.
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In a drive to build a “Republican front” against the RN every third-placed candidate from the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) pulled out, as did almost all of president Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble alliance candidates.
But a hung parliament remains a likely outcome, with 91 three-way contests remaining.
RN leader Marine Le Pen said on Tuesday that if her party narrowly failed to secure a majority on its own it would look for allies to help form a government. “We want to govern, to be extremely clear. And if we are a few deputies short of the majority,” Ms Le Pen said on France Inter Radio on Tuesday, “we will go see others and say ‘are you ready to participate with us in a new majority with a new policy’?”
The RN secured first place in 296 seats in the initial round, including 39 outright wins. It needs to win 289 for an outright majority. The co-ordinated move from the rival parties makes that much more difficult as the combined first-round vote share from Ensemble and NFP exceeded the RN’s in many constituencies. However, it is not known how many voters will shift to parties they do not usually support to block the far right rather than stay at home or shift allegiance to the RN.
“French voters are going to make a moral choice to counter the RN,” predicted Martial Foucault, professor at Sciences Po Paris, “but in doing so they are going to construct a France that is ungovernable.”
The prospect of an RN government further cements the “normalisation” of the far right in French politics. In recent years Ms Le Pen has pushed to expunge its more radical and racist elements, including her father, who cofounded the movement in 1972.
But ahead of this summer’s snap election, Jordan Bardella, the party’s chief and candidate for prime minister, pledged to fight a “cultural battle” against Islamism, end birthright citizenship for people born in France to foreign parents and restrict some so-called “sensitive” government jobs to French citizens.
On Tuesday French finance minister Bruno Le Maire wrote on X: “Let’s stop beating around the bush: the RN is a danger to the Republic. Their questioning of the loyalty of dual nationals is revolting. Ending birthright citizenship is an insult to our universalism. Not a single vote should go to the Rassemblement National.”
According to final results for Sunday’s first round from the ministry of the interior, the RN block secured 33 per cent of the vote and the left-wing NFP had 28 per cent. Macron’s Ensemble alliance secured 21 per cent.
An adviser to Mr Macron said the president would probably offer the RN the chance to form a government if the party won about 250 or 260 seats – even though the constitution does not require such a move. “They may find allies to get to 289,” the person said. “You’re not obliged to, but tradition says that you propose it to the majority group.”
– Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024
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