During small talk on the sidelines of meetings, at evening drinks receptions and around corridors of the European Parliament, everyone has been asking the same question for weeks: does she have the votes?
Ursula von der Leyen needs 361 of the parliament’s 720 MEPs to support her in a crucial confirmation vote on Thursday afternoon, to secure a second five-year term as European Commission president.
If she falls short the German politician will be very unlikely to get another shot at it. The gears that slowly drive the politics of the European Union will keep turning and another name will be put forward to head the commission. Late last month von der Leyen got the backing of a majority of the 27 national leaders for a second stint in the top EU job, but the vote in parliament was always going to be the tougher test.
The commission is the executive arm of the EU machine that proposes laws, meaning the commission president is one of the most powerful positions in European politics
Five years ago von der Leyen, then a relatively low-profile German minister, scraped over the line by nine votes. The margin of victory or defeat this time may be just as close. The vote will take place on Thursday at about noon Irish time, during the first sitting of the new European Parliament in Strasbourg, the French city where voting sessions are usually held once a month.
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The commission is the executive arm of the EU machine that proposes laws, meaning the commission president is one of the most powerful positions in European politics. A candidate has never before failed to clear the parliament vote after securing the backing of national leaders. Von der Leyen failing to do so would lead to a period of significant upheaval.
There are 400 MEPs between the three groups that command a majority in the parliament, and who are behind a second von der Leyen term. Those are the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), which includes Fine Gael, the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), where Labour’s Aodhán Ó Ríordáin sits and centrist grouping Renew, which includes the Fianna Fáil MEPs and Independents Michael McNamara and Ciaran Mullooly.
Former taoiseach Leo Varadkar put in a call to [Independent MEP Ciaran] Mullooly in recent days to gauge whether he might be convinced to support von der Leyen
A minority of MEPs who sit within the three groups plan to break with their colleagues and refuse to vote for von der Leyen, who herself comes from the EPP. French and Slovenian MEPs from the centre-right grouping previously indicated they would not support her. Fine Gael’s four MEPs are voting for von der Leyen. Fianna Fáil’s four have said they will not back a second term, as have McNamara and Ó Ríordáin.
Former taoiseach Leo Varadkar put in a call to Mullooly in recent days to gauge whether he might be convinced to support von der Leyen. The commission president’s team later lobbied the Independent Ireland MEP to secure his vote.
Bizarrely, one MEP from Cyprus appears to have joined the ranks opposing von der Leyen based on the results of a poll he ran on social media. Fidias Panayiotou, a 24-year-old known for viral stunts posted online, asked his followers on X what way he should vote.
It looks increasingly likely she will win the support of some of the 53 MEPs from the Greens grouping, who mostly abstained or voted against her five years ago
Von der Leyen has spent weeks poring over the numbers and targeting MEPs who might be brought onside. Because of the rebels in the EPP, Renew and S&D, the commission president will need to pick up votes from elsewhere to get over the line.
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It looks increasingly likely she will win the support of some of the 53 MEPs from the Greens grouping, who mostly abstained or voted against her five years ago. Having lost a lot of seats in the recent European elections and with climate policies facing strong pushback from the right, it seems the Greens leadership will ask MEPs to row in behind von der Leyen, as a means of trying to win influence with the next commission.
Von der Leyen will also secure a few votes from the nationalist, hard-right side of the parliament, possibly from Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party and others.
One high-ranking EU official who knows the parliament well cautiously predicted von der Leyen will be safe
The vote is a secret ballot, so you could have politicians from parties supporting von der Leyen privately deciding to stick the knife into her back. Perhaps more likely though, will be MEPs who will not publicly say they voted for her actually doing so when they are handed a ballot paper and pen. The mood around parliament over the last few weeks has not felt like one where many MEPs are itching for a fight.
Von der Leyen falling short would kick off several weeks of frantic political scrambling. The 27 EU leaders would have to meet for an emergency summit to try to agree on another name to nominate as the next commission president.
One high-ranking EU official who knows the parliament well cautiously predicted von der Leyen will be safe, possibly by a margin of as much as 20 votes. Equally, it will not be a total surprise if she is rejected by a handful of votes. The two hours it is expected to take for the votes to be cast and then totted up will provide a nervous wait for her.