Eastern German voters abandoned mainstream political parties in record numbers on Sunday to embrace populism in key eastern state elections.
Sunday’s political earthquake, exactly a year before federal elections, saw the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) top the poll in Thuringia and finish a close second in neighbouring Saxony.
Despite winning 30.5 and 31.5 per cent respectively, they are unlikely to govern in either state because no other party will work with them.
At its first electoral outing, the left-right populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) took 16 per cent in Thuringia and 12 per cent in Saxony.
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Taken together the AfD and BSW – 11 years and 11 months old respectively – have captured 47 and 42 per cent of the vote in Thuringia and Saxony. With almost five million voters, the two states make up just 8 per cent of Germany’s total electorate.
But high turnout in both states means the message of eastern voters will be felt in Berlin before the next federal election, scheduled for September 2025.
Another reason to pay attention: the decisive election themes in Saxony and Thuringia – migration, security and energy costs – while felt at local level are largely decided at federal level in Berlin.
The populist surge reshapes eastern Germany’s post-unification political landscape and has come at the expense of nearly all mainstream parties.
After a recent series of fatal knife attacks, the AfD stepped up its demands for limits on inward migration and attracted record support.
[ Election time in Germany: Why is the far right so popular in the east?Opens in new window ]
AfD leader Alice Weidel called the Sunday results “historic” for her party and a “requiem” for Olaf Scholz’s federal government in Berlin.
“We always have our hand outstretched for constructive co-operation,” she added, attacking as “undemocratic” a so-called firewall erected by the CDU against coalitions with her party.
With the CDU likely to lead governments in both states, senior party figures in Berlin reiterated on Sunday evening the party ban on coalitions with the AfD.
“We are the east’s political bulwark but I’m concerned that the AfD is so strong,” said Mr Carsten Linnemann, general secretary of Berlin’s opposition CDU.
Alongside the AfD, the other big winner of the evening in both states was the BSW.
A breakaway from the Left Party, the BSW pulled in many Left voters – and from all other parties – by demanding a diplomatic solution for the Ukraine-Russian war.
The BSW will be the wild card in upcoming coalition negotiations, with party leader Sahra Wagenknecht prepared to support CDU-led governments in both eastern states “if they push another foreign policy in Germany, and make their voice heard in Berlin”.
“We have founded a party that has completely shaken up the political landscape,” said Dr Wagenknecht. “The hysterical approach the AfD has only made them strong. I hope now we get a more sensible approach to politics in Germany.”
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s unpopular three-way Berlin coalition parties had a disastrous evening, even accounting for their traditionally weak support in eastern regions.
First results indicated the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) was eliminated from both parliaments. The Greens were struggling at the 5 per cent hurdle with the chancellor’s own Social Democratic Party (SPD) faring only slightly better.
Ahead of a third eastern state vote, in Brandenburg on September 22nd, the future of the Scholz government hangs in the balance.
“In Berlin, the wagons are circling,” said Prof Karl-Rudolf Korte, political scientist at the University of Duisburg-Essen. “None of them will want to look too closely at what’s playing out in the east, though, because they see no way out.”
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