A suspension of US military support to Ukraine is unlikely to trigger a sudden collapse in its defences, but it will allow Russia to exert more pressure at the front line and inflict more casualties and damage on the country’s towns and cities, analysts say.
Many Ukrainians now regard US president Donald Trump as a de-facto enabler of Russia in its invasion of their country, after the White House halted military aid to Kyiv and demanded that it show more gratitude to Washington for previous assistance and be more open to making peace with the Kremlin regardless of the terms of any deal.
After 11 years of fighting with Russia and three years of all-out war, Ukraine hopes that its own growing arms production and European pledges to dramatically increase defence investment and manufacturing will cover many of its needs, while acknowledging that there is no ready replacement for some key US weapons.
[ Ukraine says forces can hold frontline as Trump halts US military aid ]
Contrary to exaggerated claims of US largesse from Trump, data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy shows that the US has given Ukraine €64 billion in military aid since 2022, compared to €62 billion provided by Europe.
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Thanks in part to financial help and investment from the West, Ukraine is now thought to produce or purchase more than half of the weaponry it needs, while Europe supplies about a quarter and the US about 20 per cent.
When Trump’s allies in Congress blocked US military aid for Ukraine for several months at the start of last year, Russia gained ground in eastern Ukraine as Kyiv’s troops were forced to ration their use of artillery shells.
Ukrainian officials say their country can now produce about 2.5 million artillery and mortar shells a year, however. Europe made 1.4 million last year and – even before calling for a surge in arms manufacturing in recent days – planned to make two million during 2025. The US, by comparison, said last August that it had sent about three million shells to Ukraine since 2022.
This does not mean we should despair. We are still a long way from that
— Ihor Romanenko, military analyst
Traditional artillery and armour have also become less important during this war as drones that blow up on impact or drop explosives on to their targets have assumed a vital role. Ukraine is now a world leader in drone warfare and it made more than a million drones in 2024 and aims to make several million this year – as does Russia.
“Our defence industry has come a long way in the past three years. We’ve built up significant capabilities and can counter many risks and threats,” Fedir Venislavskyi, a member of the Ukrainian parliament’s defence committee, told the RBC-Ukraina news outlet on Tuesday.
“I think Ukraine definitely has a safety buffer of about six months, even without systematic assistance from the United States – but it will be much more difficult, of course.”
Military analyst Ihor Romanenko said: “The Europeans will help us, but they will not be able to fully cover everything the US supplies. So we must rely on our own forces and reserves. This does not mean we should despair. We are still a long way from that.”
Ukraine relies heavily on some high-tech US hardware, however, particularly the Patriot air defence systems that can take down even Russia’s most advanced missiles – shielding city centres and critical infrastructure – and guided rockets for powerful longer-range systems such as Himars and Atacms.
Any disruption to US intelligence sharing and provision of SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet system – owned by Trump ally and Ukraine critic Elon Musk – would also significantly hamper Ukraine’s troops and aid Russia’s invasion force.
