Even before 29 million Poles choose a new president on Sunday, many believe their country’s political future has already been decided – in a pub three hours northwest of Warsaw.
Sunday’s presidential run-off is a close race between two very different candidates: Rafal Trzaskowski, the capital’s pro-EU, liberal mayor; and Karol Nawrocki, a national conservative historian with Maga-like ambitions.
The new head of state, with control of the defence forces and powers to veto legislation, will shape Poland’s path in the EU and Nato. And supercharge – or hobble – prime minister Donald Tusk’s efforts to deliver on political promises that took him back to power in December 2023.
With just one percentage point separating them, both presidential hopefuls are courting Slawomir Mentzen, a far-right libertarian politician and pub-owner.
The 38-year-old finished third in the presidential election first round almost a fortnight ago, making his 15 per cent voter bloc now the most valuable commodity in Polish politics.
Govem Mentzen is by far the most popular candidate among younger voters – he took a third of the under-30 vote – and Poland’s two presidential front-runners were quick to accept an invitation to his craft brewery and pub in the small town of Torun.
It is filled with political bric-a-brac and agitprop and operates a very public list of banned politicians. Metzen posted his conversations from here on his YouTube channel, where he has more than one million subscribers, simultaneously boosting both his political profile and craft beer brand.
He promised a candidate endorsement days later.
The trip to Torun paid off for Trzaskowski almost immediately when a post-conversation picture of him sharing a beer with Mentzen went viral on social media.
Warsaw’s 53-year-old mayor needs all the help he can get – and the real prospect of defeat has set alarm bells ringing with Tusk.
The liberal prime minister has spent his first 18 months back in power battling on two fronts: a president allied with the opposition Law and Jusice (PiS) party who has vetoed judicial reforms and other legislation; and warring coalition allies who disagree on key election promises, including a more liberal abortion policy.
“I’m sorry, yes, you all expected us to do more, faster and be stronger,” said Tusk at a weekend rally. “So I ask you: give us the strength, so that we can change Poland as we promised.”
As PiS-allied candidate Nawrocki is presenting himself as Poland’s last defence against a looming Tusk “coup”.
“I will be the president of your future, I won’t allow our future and our childrens’ future to be stolen by those who want the destruction of the Polish state,” he said.
Earlier this month Nawrocki was photographed in the White House with Donald Trump, who has promised further US military investment in Poland if Nawrocki wins.
Nawrocki has promised a strongly nationalist platform with another migration crackdown and presidential pushback against EU plans to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.
“We are for the Polish farmer, the Polish field and Polish bread at the Polish table,” he told a rally on Sunday in Warsaw.
But Nawrocki has struggled to maintain his message in the campaign amid a surge of scandals: over an undeclared second home; alleged links to organised crime and prostitution rings, which he denies; and revelations he participated, in the early 2000s, in organised football hooligan fights. He called them a form of “noble, masculine combat” and, in the last days of campaigning, began dropping into rally speeches mentions of “stolen elections”.
That has raised speculation that, if he loses, his PiS backers will challenge Sunday’s vote as illegitimate.
Election analysts are predicting a tight result after polls close at 9pm. The first round attracted a record 67 per cent of voters and post-poll analysis revealed the usual Polish divide: Trzaskowski more popular in liberal western Poland and Nawrocki ahead in more conservative eastern regions.
Trzaskowski was also the favourite among Poles voting outside the country, on 37 per cent. However, the Trump-endorsed Nawrocki took 42 per cent of the sizeable US Polish diaspora vote. With such a tight race, polling agencies say the expat vote could swing the final outcome.
After stringing along both presidential candidates, on Wednesday Mentzen decided to endorse neither.
On a YouTube livestream he said he saw “no reason” to vote for the “slippery” Trzaskowski, accusing him of breaking promises and disowning failures.
Meanwhile, Nawrocki’s life was a “great cinematic tale”, Mentzen said, but after a series of colourful campaign revelations, “I wouldn’t be surprised if there are more such episodes in his past”.
With all eyes on him, Mentzen promised to smash the liberal and national-conservative camps that have dominated Polish politics for two decades. His aim is to go mainstream with Confederation, his party that marries libertarian economics with far-right nationalism.
“I don’t know what the future holds but it may turn out that, in two years, it’ll be Confederation deciding who governs Poland,” said Mentzen to his YouTube audience. “I intend to end this duopoly and finally bring change to Poland.”
