The latest round of talks to end the war in Ukraine concluded on Wednesday without any sign of meaningful progress.
But behind the scenes, negotiators have been trying to find a compromise on one of the biggest obstacles to a peace deal: control of territory in eastern Ukraine.
Russia has demanded that Ukraine hand over the land it controls in the Donetsk region as a condition for ending the war. This is a strip of territory about 50 miles (80.4km) long and 40 miles wide that includes dozens of towns and villages, and sits between the front line and the administrative border of the region.
Ukraine has refused to withdraw unilaterally, saying that ceding land would embolden Russia to attack again, in Ukraine or elsewhere. Kyiv has asked for security guarantees to deter Moscow from violating any ceasefire.
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In negotiations over recent weeks, officials have discussed the idea of forming a demilitarised zone controlled by neither army, according to three people familiar with the talks who would only speak anonymously to discuss sensitive negotiations.
This revives a proposal that was included in prior peace plans, including a 28-point one floated by the Trump administration in November.
Over the past week, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has repeatedly downplayed the prospects of surrendering land for peace. “Allowing the aggressor to take something is a big mistake,” he wrote on social media Monday.
Last autumn, Russian president Vladimir Putin was non-committal when asked about forming a demilitarised zone in the Donbas region. The 28-point plan would have put Russia in charge of the area but prohibited it from deploying military forces there. Putin said the details needed to be discussed.
The Russian president’s foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov, was later more positive, saying Russia could accept the formation of such an area if Russian police or national guard soldiers were allowed to patrol it.
A demilitarised zone could become part of a viable settlement, said William B Taylor, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, a think tank, and a former US ambassador to Kyiv. But Ukraine’s interests would have to be protected, he said, and that would require the Trump administration to apply additional pressure on Russia.
“It is important that it be a real solution – not a forced solution, not an unbalanced solution,” Taylor said. “Any forced solution will not be stable. It will not last.”
To make it easier for both sides to accept the idea, negotiators have also discussed forming a free-trade zone in any possible demilitarised area, though investment possibilities seem limited in a territory that would be wedged between two armies, even with a ceasefire in place. Most industry in the area is in ruins, with only one coal mine still operational, and the risk that the conflict could be rekindled would loom for years.
Zelenskiy has also cast doubt on such an arrangement.
Another issue is the withdrawal of troops from the front line. In December, Zelenskiy suggested Ukraine would not withdraw troops from the front line unless Russia withdrew by an equal distance.
At talks held in Abu Dhabi this month, the Ukrainians discussed options for a partial Russian withdrawal from the front line that would not necessarily be symmetrical, two of the three people familiar with the talks said. This would signal a softening of Ukraine’s position.
How a demilitarised zone would be governed has also been a sticking point. Ukraine has pressed for an international peacekeeping force to be deployed to the region, which is home to 190,000 civilians, including 12,000 children, according to the area’s Ukrainian governor.
The negotiators discussed forming a civilian administration to rule the area after the war, two of the three people familiar with the talks said. This could include both Russian and Ukrainian representatives, one of the people said, but the person noted that the sides are far from an agreement.
Another issue that has re-emerged recently is the sequencing of the various steps, including accepting a demilitarised zone, formalising security guarantees, creating a framework for postwar reconstruction funding and holding elections in Ukraine.
Last week, Zelenskiy said Ukraine wanted an agreement on security guarantees before committing to an election or any agreement on withdrawing forces from the Donbas. This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
