The countries of the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) have become global hot spots and major sources of greenhouse gases. Cyprus-based climate experts have warned that the region is warming nearly twice as fast as the world average and that temperatures could rise 5 degrees by the end of the century. This rate is far above the maximum of 1.5 degrees set by the Paris climate change accords adopted by 195 parties in 2016.
A study published in the US journal Reviews of Geophysics revealed that gas emissions in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East have increased six-fold since the 1950s and 1960s while the global rate was 2.5-fold. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and Iraq account for 73 per cent of the increase in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East.
Scientists from the Cyprus Institute and the German Max Planck Institute said if the 17 countries in this region continue operating on “a business-as-usual pathway” there would be “unprecedented heatwaves” and “rainfall shortages that compromise water and food security.”
The result will be severe droughts, dust storms, advancing seas, torrential rains and flooding, fires, diminished snow on mountains, salination of coastal aquifers, and atmospheric pollution. The report said: “Virtually all socio-economic sectors are expected to be critically affected, with potentially devastating impacts on the health and livelihoods of the 400 million people of the EMME, with worldwide implications.”
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Unless Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East climate change is addressed there could be “northward expansion of arid climate zones at the expense of the more temperate regions,” said Dr George Zittis, overall co-ordinator of the project.
Director of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry Jos Lilieveld said those most at risk would be “underprivileged communities, the elderly, children and pregnant women.”
An archaeologist in charge of dealing with the effects of climate change on cultural heritage, Dr Nikolas Bakirtzis, told The Irish Times that global warming affects historical sites and tourism. Deteriorating socio-economic conditions have already increased destruction and looting of antiquities from vulnerable ancient civilisations in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East.
He said the project involved 13 task forces comprised of experts from the entire region and covering all aspects of global warming. He said “the region faces too many challenges — wars and socio-economic crises,” and does not give climate change priority.
The scientists argued “immediate and effective climate change action is urgent” and said meeting Paris climate change targets could stabilise the temperature rise to about 2 degrees, avoiding the worst-case scenario.
Cyprus launched the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East climate change initiative in 2019 with the objective of developing a robust regional action plan, while the Cyprus Institute was the base for the core group of scientists which drew up the report. It is to be presented next month at Cop27, the UN Climate Change Conference at Sharm al-Shaikh in Egypt.
