Opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu has received a significant boost in his bid to return to power when Israel goes to the polls on November 1st.
The country is divided between the pro and anti-Netanyahu blocs and the polls have shown a tight contest, with neither bloc assured of clinching a 61-seat majority in the 120- seat Knesset parliament.
Thursday night was the deadline for submitting party lists and, at the last minute, the predominantly-Arab Joint List split into two, meaning tens of thousands of potential votes for the anti-Netanyahu camp will likely be wasted.
Under the Israeli system a party must win a minimum 3.25 per cent of the total vote to enter the Knesset (with a minimum four seats). The break-up of the Joint List means the Balad party has little chance of winning parliamentary representation and the truncated Joint List — comprising Hadash and Ta’al- will also lose seats and may itself struggle to pass the threshold.
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Commentators described Thursday night’s drama as a bombshell and potentially the turning point of the entire campaign.
Until now Mr Netanyahu’s Likud and his right-wing and religious party allies had been polling 59 or 60 Knesset seats. That figure is likely to rise to 61 or 62 once the votes wasted on Balad (assuming the party doesn’t pass the threshold) are redistributed among the other parties, resulting, critically, in a parliamentary majority for the pro-Netanyahu bloc.
Even before the latest developments, the Arab turnout was projected to be its lowest ever. Eligible Israeli Arabs make up 17 per cent of Israel’s population, but according to recent polls only 40 per cent or less said they will vote — significantly fewer than the projected turnout for Jewish citizens.
Some analysts believe the latest split will result in even fewer Arab citizens casting their ballots on November 1st.
However, other commentators predicted on Friday that the latest developments, and the fact that three main Arab parties are now in the race, will act as a galvanising factor and could lead to a greater turnout.
The Joint List was not part of the outgoing coalition led by prime minister Yair Lapid (and before him Naftali Bennett) but the anti-Netanyahu camp hoped they would support a new coalition from the outside without joining a future government. (A separate Arab party, Ra’am — the United Arab List, is part of the outgoing coalition).
The dispute between Balad and the other two parties was partly over which party will get what slots on the united slate but also ideological.
Balad- the most hardline Arab nationalist party of the three- was reluctant to recommend any candidate from the main Zionist parties for prime minister after the election. Hadash and Ta’al on the other hand are inclined to endorse a politician from the anti-Netanyahu bloc in return for a package of benefits for the Arab sector, such as fighting rampant crime or permission to build new neighbourhoods in Arab communities.
