Israel is a country in waiting. Waiting for a military attack from Hizbullah and/or Iran and possibly other Iranian regional proxies.
Both Tehran and the powerful Shia militia in south Lebanon have vowed to avenge the assassinations a few days ago of a senior Hizbullah commander in Beirut and Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the Hamas political bureau, in Tehran. Israel took responsibility for the first attack and even though there was no official acknowledgment over the Tehran strike it is clear that it was carried out by Israel.
Iranian sources told Lebanon’s Hizbullah-affiliated Al Mayadeen network that Iran believes the killing of Ismail Haniyeh crossed all red lines, and Tehran will not heed calls to hold back its response since this will invite further Israeli attacks.
Despite the threats daily routine continues in Israel, and there are no special instructions from the civil defence authorities at this juncture but the likelihood of an impending military strike is, naturally, uppermost in people’s thoughts.
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Those of a nervous disposition have already stocked up on bottled water, canned foods, transistor radios and batteries (fearing electricity outages) and prefer to stay at home, close to a bomb shelter or secure room.
On the other end of the scale are those who refuse to change their daily routine one iota so as not to grant the enemy the pleasure of knowing that their threats have an impact.
The speculation is endless and has been the pre-eminent topic of conversation in the days following the double assassinations. When will the attacks come? How long will it last? Will the targets be military or civilian? And, critically, will it mark the opening shots of an all-out regional war, possibly involving Iran and the United States?
Residents of greater Tel Aviv – where most of the population live – got another reminder on Sunday that these are abnormal times when Israeli intelligence disrupted GPS networks in an effort to thwart the threat of drones or missiles that use satellite navigation guidance systems.
Drivers across central Israel reported addresses in Beirut appearing on their GPS car screens. Similar disruptions are already a way of life for residents of the north since October 8th – the day after the Hamas attack – when Hizbullah began its cross-border attacks.
Travel plans have also been disrupted, with more international airlines cancelling flights to and from Israel, leaving tens of thousands of Israelis stranded abroad. Those lucky enough to find available seats on incoming flights are paying two or three times the regular fare.
The Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that “Arab officials said they have passed warnings to Iran on behalf of Israel and the US that Israel is ready to go to war if Hizbullah and Iran respond too aggressively” such as an attack on Tel Aviv or deeper inside Israel.
Israeli air defence systems are deployed at the highest possible alert level, poised to intercept rockets, missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The Arrow system is poised to intercept long-range surface-to-surface missiles from Iran and Yemen. The David’s Sling and Iran Dome systems are on standby to intercept missiles and other aerial threats.
Israel and the US are closely co-ordinating operations to stem a possible missile and drone attack, and the Americans have announced the deployment of another aircraft carrier to the Middle East, the USS Abraham Lincoln, to join the USS Theodore Roosevelt, which is on patrol in the Gulf of Oman.
Washington, likely in co-ordination with friendly Arab states, is also deploying aerial defence systems, ships and combat jets in the region.
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