Middle EastAnalysis

Iran monitoring progress in Gaza ceasefire talks as it delays retaliation against Israel

Foreign ministry restates Iran’s right under international law to respond to Israel’s violation of its sovereignty by assassinating Hamas leader in Tehran

A billboard in Tehran showing the recently assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh with Iran's newly-elected president Masoud Pezeshkian. Photograph: Arash Khamooshi/The New York Times
A billboard in Tehran showing the recently assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh with Iran's newly-elected president Masoud Pezeshkian. Photograph: Arash Khamooshi/The New York Times
Michael Jansen's picture
Michael Jansen
Wed Aug 14 2024 - 17:36

Progress in Thursday’s Gaza ceasefire talks could prompt Iran to avert regional war by stepping back from retaliating against Israel for its assassination of Hamas’s leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last month.

US president Joe Biden said on Tuesday that this was his “expectation”. For the talks he has dispatched to the region Central Intelligence Agency chief William Burns, adviser Brett McGurk, and Israeli-born Lebanon envoy Amos Hochstein, but paused the visit of secretary of state Antony Blinken until prospects are positive.

Hamas has said it will not attend Thursday’s talks but will send an envoy to Qatar afterwards. The Gaza-based militant group has accepted a ceasefire plan put forward by Biden on May 31st, while Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu has risked seeing it fail by insisting Israel must control the Egypt-Gaza border and supervise the return of Palestinians to northern Israel. Under the plan, Israel is meant to withdraw totally and allow Palestinians freedom of movement.

Iran’s foreign ministry has rejected calls that it renounce retaliation against Israel, which it regards as its right under international law due to what it sees as Israel’s violation of Iran’s sovereignty in assassinating Haniyeh in Tehran. An adviser to Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian told the Washington Post that Iran‘s retaliation would be “intelligence based” and require time for “contemplation and patience”.

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Despite calls from the leaders of France, Germany and Britain urging restraint, Pezeshkian will submit to the ultimate authority of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who said “Israel paved the way for a severe punishment upon itself” by striking Tehran.

Military action would potentially wreck Pezeshkian’s pledge to cultivate relations with the West and revive the 2015 agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for lifting sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy.

Sworn in on July 30th, Pezeshkian faces multiple challenges. His 19-member cabinet could be turned down by the conservative-dominated parliament. Vice-president Mohammed Reza Aref rejected a woman, Farzaneh Sadegh, as roads and housing minister.

Having disagreed over appointments, Pezeshkian’s influential ally and deputy Javad Zarif has resigned. London-based Amwaj media argued this “could be catastrophic for Pezeshkian’s popular mandate”. He retained interior minister Esmail Khatib although during his stewardship Iran has suffered major security failures, including the Haniyeh assassination.

A week into Pezeshkian’s presidency, CCTV images circulated on social media showed morality police officers dragging a young woman without a headscarf into a van, risking reignition of the 2022 protests over mandatory head coverings caused by the arrest and death in custody of Mahsa Amini for allegedly violating the law.