Support among the Israeli public for the war in Lebanon remains high.
Most people believe that significantly degrading Hizbullah’s military capability and pushing its fighters away from the border is a necessary precondition for the return of the 63,000 Israelis who fled their homes on the northern border to escape rocket fire and the possibility of a cross-border militant invasion, similar to the October 7th, 2023, Hamas attack from Gaza.
However, based on Israel’s experience in two previous wars in Lebanon, in 1982 and 2004, the public is wary of a war of attrition, with soldiers again becoming stuck in a Lebanese quagmire.
A survey by the Israel Democracy Institute at the start of the October 1st ground invasion found that 90 per cent of Jewish Israelis believe that launching a war against Hizbullah was the correct move (47 per cent of Israeli Arabs opposed the offensive). A large majority of Israelis, more than 70 per cent, think both the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Israel’s civilian population would be able to withstand an extended war on two or more fronts.
Divided into political affiliation, 67 per cent of Israelis who identify as left-wing supported the attack on Hizbullah, compared to 87 per cent of those in the centre and 95 per cent of those who identify as right-wing.
Regarding the ground offensive, opinions were more evenly split, with 47 per cent of Jewish Israelis in favour as opposed to 41 per cent against, while the majority of Arab respondents were opposed (59.5 per cent). However, the survey was conducted at the start of the ground offensive and it is likely that support would be significantly higher today, based on the military achievements to date and the relatively low casualty rate among Israeli troops.
The parallels with the first and second Lebanon wars are palpable. The aim of the 1982 and 2024 campaigns were also ostensibly to distance militants from Israel’s northern border and remove the threat of rockets and missiles being fired on Israeli communities.
Both enjoyed widespread public support at the start. However, in 1982, it soon became apparent that the operation that was supposed to be limited in time and scope had expanded beyond the goals that were approved by the ministers. Then defence minister Ariel Sharon did not intend to stop at the 40km mark approved by the government of Menachem Begin, planning all along to reach Beirut.
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In 2006, the high cost of life and the IDF’s inability to subdue Hizbullah led to considerable criticism within Israel over the handling of the war.
Israel’s stated aim now is to push Hizbullah north of the Litani river, which lies about 30km north of the Israeli border. But Binyamin Netanyahu’s opponents fear that he seeks a protracted war in Lebanon to take attention away from the hostages being held in Gaza and the pressure for a ceasefire which may endanger the stability of his coalition.