Middle EastAnalysis

Hizbullah withdrawal will not erase its presence in south Lebanon

Following ceasefire deal, Shia movement will halt attacks on Israel, but will assume huge responsibilities in rebuilding towns and infrastructure

A car decorated with the flag of Hizbullah in the city of Baalbek, Lebanon on Wednesday. Photograph: Nidal Solh/AFP via Getty Images
A car decorated with the flag of Hizbullah in the city of Baalbek, Lebanon on Wednesday. Photograph: Nidal Solh/AFP via Getty Images
Michael Jansen's picture
Michael Jansen
Wed Nov 27 2024 - 15:39

The ceasefire deal for Lebanon requires Hizbullah to halt attacks on Israel and withdraw fighters and arms from a broad band of southern Lebanon to the Litani river, 30km from the Israeli border. Israel’s army is to pull out of border zone villages it has occupied and the Lebanese army is to deploy alongside United Nations peacekeepers to secure this area. However, the removal of Hizbullah’s paramilitary presence does not signify the movement’s erasure in the south.

As the weak, fractured, bankrupt Lebanese state cannot cope with the wreckage and human losses of the latest conflict, Hizbullah can be expected to assume huge responsibilities. Its construction firm, Jihad Al-Binaa, is likely to return to rebuild shattered villages, towns and infrastructure. Hizbullah’s social welfare network will support displaced people returning to their homes. Its martyrs’ association will pay stipends to families of fighters who have been killed in battle and Hizbullah doctors, nurses and teachers will resume work where and when possible.

Since its founding by Shia clerics backed by Iran in the 1980s, Hizbullah’ s armed branch has focused on defending Lebanon from Israel. Its fighters have been estimated to number 60,000 on active service and reserve while its stockpile of missiles grew from 14,000 in 2006 to 150,000 this year. Hizbullah became the world’s most powerful non-state armed movement.

Its service branch has promoted the advancement of the marginalised, poor Shia community and expanded operations to become the country’s dominant social, economic and political force. In addition to an extensive welfare programme, Hizbullah operates four hospitals (where care is cheaper than in private hospitals), 12 clinics, a dozen schools, two agricultural extension centres, amusement parks and restaurants. It communicates via Al-Manar satellite television, Al-Nour radio and the weekly journal Al-Ahad.

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Hizbullah is financed by Iran, Lebanese business groups, the Lebanese diaspora, allied Muslim groups and countries, taxes paid by Lebanese Shias, investments and donations from businessmen and private people.

The group’s Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc holds 15 seats in Lebanon’s 128-member parliament. Taking into account the Shia Amal Movement’s 15 seats, Shia deputies have become a strong force on the political scene. Parliamentary speaker and Amal leader Nabih Berri served as Lebanon’s negotiator for the ceasefire agreement.

In May 2000, Hizbullah gained popularity in Lebanon and across the Arab world after the movement’s guerrillas forced Israel to withdraw from south Lebanon after a 22-year occupation. In 2006, Hizbullah was celebrated when its fighters drove Israeli troops from Lebanon for a second time. Since then, Hizbullah’ s standing has eroded. A survey conducted in mid-2024 by the Princeton University and University of Michigan-sponsored Arab Barometer found only 30 per cent of Lebanese trust Hizbullah, which remains popular with Shias, while 55 per cent have no trust.