A ceasefire to end 14 months of fighting between Israel and the militant group Hizbullah has come into effect, with Lebanese civilians already returning to the devastated south of the country.
Do we know the details of the deal?
The agreement follows the contours of United Nations (UN) Security Council resolution 1701, which ended the 36-day Israel-Hizbullah war of 2006, but was never fully implemented. The deal requires Israel’s military to withdraw from southern Lebanon and Hizbullah to pull its heavy weapons north of the Litani river, about 25km north of the frontier. The western-backed Lebanese army is expected to deploy to the south during a 60-day transition phase.
While Hizbullah is part of the Lebanese government, its forces are not part of the official military. A copy of the ceasefire deal seen stipulates that only “official military and security forces” in Lebanon will be allowed to carry weapons. Hizbullah is unlikely to disarm completely but might reduce its armed presence in public.
The hope is that the ceasefire will become permanent, and the deal will be monitored by a US-led supervisory mechanism that will act as a referee on infringements.
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Is it likely to work?
Israel appears to have come to the table after warnings from Washington that a failure to agree a ceasefire would prompt the US not to veto a UN Security Council resolution that would impose a ceasefire under disadvantageous conditions for Israel. Hizbullah, which the US considers a terrorist organisation, participated in the talks for the truce via mediators.
Israel will be glad of the opportunity to rest its ground forces and reservists and repair and replenish munitions and inventory. It is also pleased that the US, its major ally, will be directly involved in mediating violations.
What is the situation on the ground?
There has been fierce fighting over the past week. Israel carried out intensive air strikes on the Lebanese capital, Beirut, and across the south of the country on Monday and Tuesday, after Hizbullah fired more than 200 rockets into Israel on Sunday – one of the heaviest attacks since the conflict escalated in late September.
About 3,700 people have been killed in Lebanon, and 126 people in Israel by the fighting. Hundreds of thousands on both sides of the frontier have been displaced from their homes.
What about a ceasefire in the war in Gaza?
Importantly for the Israelis, Hizbullah has dropped its demand that a ceasefire in Lebanon be contingent on ending the fighting in Gaza. Since a truce in the Gaza war collapsed after a week last November, ceasefire negotiations have repeatedly failed. Qatar, a major mediator between Israel and Hamas, announced earlier this month it was quitting its role until both parties showed “willingness and seriousness” in the talks. – Guardian