Not for the first time since the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7th, 2023, the Middle East is on the brink.
Egyptian and Qatari mediators, in close co-ordination with US diplomats, are scrambling to save the Gaza ceasefire. A Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo on Wednesday as part of those efforts.
Nine more living hostages are due to be set free by Hamas in the first stage of the ceasefire, including three on Saturday. But the militant group, citing a number of alleged Israeli violations of the truce agreed last month in the first phase of a three-part ceasefire process, said it was putting Saturday’s release on hold.
Before Israel could respond, US president Donald Trump reshuffled the pack, suggesting that if “all the hostages” were not set free by noon on Saturday, Israel should abandon the ceasefire and resume the fighting.
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“If these guys [Hamas] don’t go through with their deal on Saturday, then I think we’re back to where we were a few months ago where Hamas is going to be eliminated and the Israelis are going to go in and take care of that problem,” said US secretary of state Marco Rubio.
Following a meeting of Israel’s security cabinet on Tuesday, prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu said: “If Hamas doesn’t return all our hostages by noon on Saturday, the ceasefire will stop and the [Israel Defense Forces] will resume high-intensity fighting until Hamas’s final defeat.”
In tandem with these comments, Israel has boosted forces inside its Gaza buffer zone and sent reinforcements to the south. Leave for combat soldiers has been cancelled and some reserve units have been mobilised, while others have been put on standby. The message is clear and the clock is ticking down towards Saturday.
Despite the bellicose tone and the military manoeuvres, it is believed the release of three hostages on Saturday will suffice to get the ceasefire back on track, although Israel is also demanding that the other six living hostages due to be set free under stage one of the truce be released “in the coming days” as opposed to three each on following Saturdays, as set out in the terms of the ceasefire.
The shocking images of the emaciated hostages released last Saturday has reframed Israel’s agony. A doctor treating the hostages said on Wednesday that one of them would not have survived a few more weeks in Hamas captivity. It is now clear that the men were kept in much harsher conditions than female hostages and it is believed that captured soldiers who are still alive, slated for release in the later stages, will be in even worse condition.
Israel’s Hostage and Missing Families Forum responded with alarm to Netanyahu’s statement, amid the ongoing emotional distress of the families whose loved ones remain in captivity after nearly 500 days. “Mr Prime Minister, you, as leader, made an ethical decision to bring home all of our hostages in the context of the agreement. We mustn’t move backward. We mustn’t allow hostages to languish in captivity,” the forum said in a statement.
But even if stage one of the ceasefire can be salvaged there is little optimism over what comes next. The negotiations over the second stage were supposed to begin last week. Not only have those negotiations not begun, but Israel has indicated it has no intention of beginning them. The complicated ceasefire process ends with a total Israeli withdrawal and an end to the war – a move that would endanger Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition.
And if Hamas believes Israel plans to resume fighting, what motivation does it have to give up its only asset – the remaining hostages?
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