Gaza conflict: Second stage of ceasefire in doubt

Phase two comprises permanent suspension of hostilities and complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from enclave

A boy the in war-devastated neighbourhood of Khan Yunis in advance of the Muslim holy fasting month of Ramadan. Israel believes that Hamas, weakened militarily, will not seek a return to hostilities during Ramadan. Photograph: Eyad Baba/AFP via Getty Images
A boy the in war-devastated neighbourhood of Khan Yunis in advance of the Muslim holy fasting month of Ramadan. Israel believes that Hamas, weakened militarily, will not seek a return to hostilities during Ramadan. Photograph: Eyad Baba/AFP via Getty Images

The first stage of the ceasefire in the Gaza war has concluded amid little optimism that agreement on a second phase is within reach.

Israel’s position is that it wants another 42 days of ceasefire, with additional hostage releases every week, continuing the format agreed in the first phase of the ceasefire that brought a cessation in the 15-month war in January.

This would be in return for the release of Palestinian prisoners and allowing more humanitarian aid and desperately needed trailer homes to enter the coastal enclave, says Israel.

However, Hamas official Taher Al-Nunu told the Qatari Al Araby news channel that the sides should now move to stage two, as stipulated in the January deal. “[Israel’s] disruption of the second stage of the agreement does not allow for an extension of the first stage,” he said. “We are committed to the ceasefire agreement and the responsibility now lies with the mediators to force the occupation [Israel] to implement it.”

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Talks have been taking place in Cairo and Egyptian sources confirmed that Hamas disagrees with Israel’s plan to extend the existing ceasefire and wants to proceed with the second stage as agreed.

The second stage of the ceasefire agreement was to include the release of all remaining hostages, including Israeli male soldiers, a permanent ceasefire and the complete withdrawal of Israeli soldiers from Gaza.

On January 15th a ceasefire in Gaza was announced. Phase one of the deal has managed to hold, despite several disagreements along the way. Video: David Dunne

However, Israel believes that Hamas, weakened militarily, will not seek a return to hostilities during the holy month of Ramadan, which begins this weekend.

Israel announced it will not implement a key obligation under the first phase of the ceasefire agreement – the start of the withdrawal of troops on Saturday from the strategic Philadelphi route that runs along the Gaza-Egypt border. “We will not allow Hamas murderers to once again roam our borders with pickup trucks and guns, and we will not allow them to rebuild strength from smuggling,” said an Israeli official in a statement.

Hamas described the Israeli decision to stay in the corridor as a “blatant violation” of the ceasefire agreement.

Israel and the US have demanded that during stage–two talks, the Hamas leadership leave the Gaza Strip and the enclave be demilitarised in exchange for ending the war. The two countries also seem to be on the same page over the demand that there can be no role for Hamas in any post-war arrangement. It is difficult to see Hamas ever agreeing to these demands.

The Gaza war erupted on October 7th, 2023, with the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel in which about 1,200 people were killed and 250 taken hostage, according to Israel. More than 48,000 people in Gaza have been killed in Israel’s ensuring onslaught on the enclave, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.

There are still 59 hostages being held in Gaza, all classified by Hamas as males of military age. Israel believes 24 of them are still alive, including two foreign workers from Thailand and Nepal. The hostages’ families continue to press the government, warning that their loved ones will not survive without swift action. Banners depicting hostages chained together in a Hamas tunnel were put up throughout Israel on Friday as part of a new campaign to bring them home now in a single stage.

The official announcement from the families said: “We know exactly what is happening to our children – harsh abuse, extreme starvation and thirst, indescribable physical and psychological suffering. We cannot continue to ignore reality any longer. They will not survive much longer! There is a proposal on the table and we must accept it! We must bring them all back in one stage!”

According to Hamas sources, the hostages are the organisation’s “significant trump card” and will not be released in their entirety until Israel commits to ending the war.

However, the sources indicated that there may be limited hostage releases in return for Palestinian prisoners, improving the prisoners’ conditions and increasing the flow of aid and goods into Gaza, including heavy equipment and trailers.

Mark Weiss

Mark Weiss

Mark Weiss is a contributor to The Irish Times based in Jerusalem