Ultra-Orthodox parties in prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s coalition are threatening to vote with the opposition next week in favour of a Bill calling for early elections.
Elections must be held by October 2026. According to polls, Mr Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious coalition is set to lose its majority. The Bill to be voted on in a preliminary vote next week would likely mean the election would be brought forward to later this year or early next year.
The 20-month Gaza war, the longest in Israel’s history, has caused a serious rift in Mr Netanyahu’s coalition.
Many of the voters of the right-wing parties have already served hundreds of days of army reserve duty, causing a huge strain on families and businesses.
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The ultra-Orthodox parties, in contrast, serve a constituency that, with a few exceptions, does not serve in the army. Calls for a more equitable sharing of the burden have been rebuffed by ultra-Orthodox leaders, who fear that military service will be the first step towards the adoption of a more secular lifestyle.
The fast-growing ultra-Orthodox community, which already makes up about 14 per cent of Israel’s population, is angry that the government has failed to pass legislation enshrining in law an exemption from military service for yeshiva religious seminary students.
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Israel’s high court ruled a year ago that the draft exemption for the ultra-Orthodox community is illegal as it discriminates against other Israelis, who serve three years in the army from the age of 18.
However, the overwhelming majority of ultra-Orthodox Jews, known in Hebrew as Haredim, or God-fearing, have simply ignored their draft orders – so far with impunity.
Mr Netanyahu promised the ultra-Orthodox parties months ago that legislation would be passed enabling the community to continue avoiding military service, but he failed to deliver on that promise, partly due to fierce opposition from his own political base.
Legislation being drawn up by Yuli Edelstein, the head of the Knesset parliament’s foreign affairs and defence committee, and a member of Mr Netanyahu’s Likud party, calls for sweeping economic sanctions against those who avoid the draft and would also prevent offenders from receiving a driving licence or travelling abroad.
In an effort to exert pressure on Mr Netanyahu, the ultra-Orthodox parties have, for the last month, refused to support coalition private members’ Bills, effectively paralysing the work of the Knesset.
The prospect of early elections is highly problematic for Mr Netanyahu. “It looks like the beginning of the end,” a source involved in one ultra-Orthodox party said. “The question is just how much time this end will take.”
However, ultra-Orthodox parties will have to take into account the fact that early elections could also send them into opposition.
