The original deadline set by United States president Donald Trump for reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran expires today, but both sides want to keep talking for now.
Another round of US-Iranian talks on Tehran’s uranium enrichment programme is scheduled to take place in Oman on Sunday. Enrichment can be used to produce uranium for reactor fuel or, at higher levels of refinement, for atomic bombs. Iran says its nuclear energy programme is only for peaceful purposes.
As long as the diplomatic channel is open, Washington has made it clear it does not want Israel to take any military action against Iran.
A senior Iranian official said on Thursday that a “friendly country” in the region has alerted Tehran about a potential Israeli strike. The day of reckoning appears close, heralding one of the most dangerous periods the Middle East has faced.
Trump addressed Iran’s demand to retain its right to enrich uranium as part of a new nuclear deal by saying that Tehran would face “extremely dangerous” consequences if it refuses to compromise.
The urgency of the matter was reinforced when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) nuclear watchdog released a report a few days ago declaring that Iran already has 400kg of 60 per cent enriched uranium, which is enough material to produce 10 atomic bombs, the first of which could be ready within three weeks. On Thursday the IAEA declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations.
Despite US media reports on Thursday that Israel is “fully prepared” to launch an attack on Iran, such an action without the green light from Washington remains unlikely.
[ UN nuclear watchdog says Iran is in breach of negotiationsOpens in new window ]
It is no secret that Israel has been preparing for such a scenario for years and military analysts view the spate of long-distance Israeli air force attacks against Houthi targets in Yemen, and the naval strike on the Hodeidah port this week, as a dry run for a much more serious action against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Israel has twice carried out successful air strikes against the nuclear reactors of regional foes, destroying Iraq’s nuclear reactor in June 1981 and Syria’s in September 2007. However, Iran presents a different challenge, with numerous nuclear installations spread out over vast areas, many deep underground. And Iran’s ability to respond to an Israeli attack is also at a different level.
According to NBC, Israel has recently begun to consider launching a unilateral attack, but it is difficult to envisage prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu defying the wishes of Trump and launching a strike alone. A promise not to strike unilaterally was reportedly relayed by strategic affairs minister Ron Dermer, Mossad director David Barnea and national security council director Tzahi Hanegbi in talks in Washington two weeks ago.
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It is believed that Israel has the ability to precisely strike the uranium enrichment facilities in Iran, but significantly greater damage would be caused in a joint US-Israeli attack. The number of strikes that Israel could carry out are small in comparison to US capabilities. The US has heavier ground-piercing bombs, along with strategic B-52 bombers and stealth bombers, capable of firing dozens of precision weapons to cripple Iran’s military infrastructure and, critically, sustain such attacks over an extended period.
Co-ordination with Washington is even more critical for Israel when it comes to Iran’s likely response.
In two separate aerial attacks, in response to Iran’s missile and drone strikes in April and October 2024, Israel knocked out Iran’s strategic air defence system, leaving the regime more exposed than ever to air strikes. However, it is believed that in the event of an attack on its nuclear facilities, Tehran would again try to launch many hundreds of missiles and drones towards Israel.
Israel needs the US both to reinforce its missile defence systems in case of an Iranian counter-attack, and, potentially, for a continuous aerial offensive against Iran, with multiple sorties.
