Washington and Tehran are set to resume negotiations on its nuclear programme on Thursday under threat of US military action if agreement cannot be reached.
The Trump administration, meanwhile, has assembled a naval armada in the Arabian Sea and dispatched additional war planes to bases in the Gulf. In addition, two aircraft carriers – the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R Ford – hold dozens of planes and helicopters.
It is estimated there are at least 16 US warships in total in Donald Trump’s naval armada, and about 40,000 troops deployed in bases and at sea in the area.
This is largest US regional military build-up since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, which toppled the country’s president Saddam Hussein.
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Last Thursday, Trump warned that Iran had a “maximum” of 15 days to reach a deal with the US or “bad things happen.”
The question of whether Trump will order air strikes against Iran may well depend to a large extent on the views of his special envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and whether they feel Tehran is serious about curbing its nuclear programme.
Witkoff expressed puzzlement this week over Iran’s failure to capitulate to Washington’s demands, while Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi appeared to adopt a contradictory view. “We are working on the elements of a deal and draft of the text,” he told CBS, which could result in a “quick agreement.”
While the US demands zero enrichment of uranium, Iran demands the right to enrich but is reportedly prepared to pause this process, dilute its enriched uranium and discuss exporting its stockpile to Russia.
Araghchi warned: “If the United States attacks us, we absolutely have the right to defend ourselves” since an attack would amount to an “act of aggression” to which a response “is justified and legitimate.”
[ Uncertainty in Tehran amid US-Iran tensions as residents fear attackOpens in new window ]
Araghchi has said Iran’s targets would be regional US bases as Iranian ballistic missiles cannot “reach US soil.”
While the scale of Trump’s military deployment is considerable, it does not involve “boots on the ground” or compare with the huge commitment of 700,000 troops, backed up by sea and air power, which drove Iraqi forces from Kuwait in 1990/91.
Underlining the risks of a conflict, Axios reported that top US general Dan Caine advised Trump and senior officials that “a military campaign against Iran could carry significant risks, in particular the possibility of becoming entangled in a prolonged conflict.”
Trump, however, struck a more defiant tone on social media. While Caine would like to avoid war, he thinks it would “be something easily won,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. “If he is told to do so, he will be leading the pack.”
Caine is not the only adviser to prefer talk over war. Witkoff and Kushner have urged Trump to “give diplomacy a chance,” though sources say the US president is “leaning towards a strike.”
